Three thoughts on San Diego State’s dramatic 63-62 win against UC San Diego on Friday night at soldout LionTree Arena:
1. Learning lessons
Coach Brian Dutcher said this afterward: “We’re able to learn lessons as we win. Most programs are going to take an L or two Ls and learn a hard lesson.”
Let’s see if they learn this one.
They didn’t learn in 2013 after a 65-64 win at USD, renewing the series for another five years. They didn’t learn in 2015 after a 53-48 loss at Petco Park against a USD team with a No. 272 Kenpom ranking, ultimately ending the USD series but starting one against UCSD that culminated in Friday night’s near debacle at soldout, frenzied LionTree Arena.
Now comes the decision whether to renew the series and return one day to LionTree Arena.
“If we got beat, it would have for sure been the last one,” Dutcher said. “Since we won, we might reconsider.”
He laughed, indicating he was joking. Or was he?
It’s hard for fans to comprehend how precarious a game it is for a program of SDSU’s stature. One argument is that it’s good for the city. The counterargument is what’s better for the city is the Aztecs continually making the NCAA Tournament with a favorable seed, and venturing into a crosstown gym against an amped-up opponent in the 200s wanting a shot at big brother unnecessarily risks that — just as the 2015 USD loss likely cost them a spot in the tournament later that season.
“I don’t think San Diego State, Coach Dutcher, have any obligation to play us,” UCSD coach Eric Olen acknowledged. “They’re trying to accomplish some things with their schedule and qualify for the NCAA Tournament. … This is a Quad 4 road game. You guys can do the research. I can’t imagine there are a lot of top 20 Kenpom teams playing Quad 4 road games in the nonconference.”
There aren’t. Twelve of the Kenpom top 20 haven’t played a true road game yet (SDSU has already played two). Of the 10 total road games that the others have played, six are mandated as part of a conference challenge series. The remaining four were all against Kenpom top 25 opponents, where you’re likely to be the underdog and a loss doesn’t torpedo your metrics.
A loss to No. 246 does.
Even a win does. The Aztecs dropped nine spots in the Kenpom ratings to 28th, or the equivalent of two seed lines in the NCAA Tournament. (Imagine the resume hit had they not come back and instead lost by double figures.)
Olen gets it.
“It’s easy for people who came to this to say, ‘Oh, I hope we can just keep doing this,’” Olen said afterward. “I would love to do it. We would all love to keep doing this. But I think it’s important to recognize all the factors that go into the decision-making. This was a great atmosphere. I think it’s great for San Diego basketball. But, like, San Diego State and what they’ve done is also great for San Diego basketball, right?
“They’ve done more than their share for San Diego basketball. We’re all indebted to them. We appreciate them coming over and doing this. … My hope is that we continue to build and we get to a level where it makes sense for them to play. If we do our part and we build our program and we get to the top 100, top 75, top 120, I think the conversations can change at that point. But we have some work to do to get to that point.”
2. The whiteboard
Dutcher talks about the complexities of diagramming a last-second play during a timeout, and how they rarely work.
And the Xs and Os he scribbled on the whiteboard with 7 seconds left didn’t.
The play was designed to get Micah Parrish the ball in the corner, with the hope that UCSD, which still had three fouls to give, wouldn’t use them for fear of fouling Parrish in the act of shooting and sending him to the line. That quickly became moot, however, when Olen threw a curveball and put his team in a 2-3 zone.
It diffused Dutcher’s play and cut off driving lanes. But zones are notoriously hard to rebound out of because you block out an area instead of a specific man, and Jaedon LeDee found a seam to position himself to rebound Lamont Butler’s missed 3 and score the winning basket.
“Players make coaches look good,” Dutcher said, “and mine made me look good tonight.”
But rewind 1.4 seconds, and Dutcher did diagram something that contributed to the victory.
UCSD had just used one of its free fouls on Butler. Now the Aztecs faced a sideline inbound with a good 75 feet from their basket, and dribbling upcourt was not an option because the Tritons would simply foul again.
Dutcher called timeout and started scribbling. He had Parrish, the inbounder, fake toward the backcourt while LeDee cut hard from the opposite lane toward midcourt. LeDee received the pass and instantly called SDSU’s final timeout with 7 seconds left.
“We were going to foul,” Olen said. “‘Dutch’ is a smart guy. He’s done this longer than I have. They probably recognized we had fouls to give. I thought them throwing it into the frontcourt and calling that timeout was a big decision that kept us from eating up a couple seconds (with a foul).
“That’s why he’s a Hall of Famer, you know? That got them in a good position.”
3. Lamont, with an O
Butler has been an elite defender all season, routinely shutting down the other team’s best perimeter threat. His offensive game, though, has been merely average.
He entered Saturday night averaging 8.1 points per game, tied with Elijah Saunders for fourth on the team, while shooting a career-worst 28.6 percent behind the arc. Then he missed seven of his first eight shots, including a pair of layups with seven minutes left and the Aztecs down 14.
What happened next?
The Aztecs outscored the Tritons 20-5 to close the game. That doesn’t happen without Butler.
The senior guard had eight points and three assists, making him directly responsible for 16 straight Aztecs points that changed the game.
Maybe the most impressive part: It started with a 3 on the next possession after the two missed bunnies.
“He’s a confident player,” Dutcher said. “You can miss shots during the game, but really good players make shots when the game’s on the line. They don’t get discouraged when the ball doesn’t go in. Lamont missed layups and he missed some opportunities, but to his credit, much like he did last year, he made really important shots for us down the stretch.”
He made another 3 with 2:15 left when, like the first, his defender opted to go under the ball screen. Both times he calmly stepped back and fired – nothing but net.
“I don’t know what their game plan was, but I don’t think that’s very smart,” Parrish said. “I know Lamont improved over the last couple seasons with his 3-point shot. I’m confident, and I know the coaches are confident, in it. If teams keep going under (screens), I believe he’ll keep making them.”
