The metric compares bitcoin’s price on Coinbase to its price on Binance to gauge US versus non-US demand. Rallies are usually more sustainable when the premium is positive.
The price of BTC on Coinbase briefly rose above $70,500 on Tuesday.
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Posted November 5, 2024 at 1:05 pm EST.
US-based bitcoin investors appeared to be staying on the sidelines on the day of the highly-anticipated election to determine the next US president and commander-in-chief, according to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
The Coinbase bitcoin premium—the percentage difference between the price of bitcoin on crypto exchanges Coinbase Pro and Binance—has remained negative for the last 32 days, data from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows, signaling lower demand for BTC in the US versus the rest of the world. The premium reached -0.2% on Oct. 24, before rising and settling at -0.06% at presstime.
CryptoQuant noted that bitcoin price increases usually last longer when the bitcoin price premium is positive. “Typically, Bitcoin rallies in a sustainable way when the Coinbase premium turns and remains positive, indicating strong demand for Bitcoin in the U.S.,” CryptoQuant wrote.
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However, the firm also noted that BTC’s fundamentals remain positive. “Bitcoin apparent demand [overall] is growing strongly and at a similar pace as before the 2020 election. Demand has been picking up since late September and is now growing by 248K bitcoin monthly, the fastest pace since April 21, 2024. Price rallies follow higher bitcoin demand,” CryptoQuant stated.
BTC also has less selling pressure as shown by the amount of tokens traders and investors are moving into exchanges. Daily exchange inflows are currently hovering around 45,000 bitcoins, compared to the 2024 peak of 95,000 in March, and 73,000 in the lead-up to the 2020 election.
The bitcoin premium’s negative status comes as daily flows to spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a six-month low. On Monday, daily net flow totaled negative $541 million, per SoSoValue, highlighting how US dollars have exited ETFs before Election Day.
On Tuesday, the price of BTC on Coinbase climbed roughly 2.7% from as low as $68,249 to above $70,500, according to TradingView.
In the last three U.S. presidential elections, the price of bitcoin saw large upswings between Election Day and year-end. BTC jumped 98% in 2020, 37% in 2016, and 22% in 2012, according to CryptoQuant.
