Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour discusses the business of election betting on ‘Making Money.’
Millions of Americans placed election prediction bets in the weeks leading up to Election Day, and one of those market bettors is walking away with much more than previously estimated.
A French individual known by the name of “Theo” originally put more than $30 million on a Donald Trump White House win on the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket.
The anonymous bettor was originally projected to take home a profit of $48 million on the wager, but blockchain data firm Chainalysis provided an update on Thursday that the profit number is actually closer to $84 million.
“We identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo’ which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M,” Chainalysis’ X account posted. “An 11th address is suspected with another $2.1M profit, but unconfirmed.”
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Polymarket gamblers allegedly spent $3.7 billion in election bets, and even more money was spent on competitor platforms like Robinhood, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers and PredictIt.
The anonymous French election bettor known as “Theo” made upwards of $80 million off the former president’s 2024 win. (Getty Images)
Just hours before Election Day, Polymarket, which is the largest prediction market, saw Trump as having a 58.1% chance of taking back the White House, compared to Vice President Kamala Harris at 41.9%.
Kalshi traders saw Trump with a 55% chance of victory, to Harris’ 45%, and RealClearPolitics betting odds data collectively gave the former president a 57.9% chance of winning the election, compared to Harris’ 40.7%.
“Theo” exclusively spoke to the Wall Street Journal during a Zoom call last week where he said: “My intent is just making money… I have absolutely no political agenda.”
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Theo was originally believed to have four Polymarket accounts, but Chainalysis additionally claimed it could be as many as 11.
Polymarket is a relatively new trading platform, created just four years ago, but proved to be a way to keep American voters engaged throughout the 2024 election cycle.
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FOX Business’ Breck Dumas contributed to this report.
