There have been 11th-hour shifts in each of the three manager searches the Padres have conducted during A.J. Preller’s tenure.
That could happen again.
But as the situation stands, it appears things might end up the way many inside the Padres organization felt they would for some time.
Bob Melvin is the leading candidate to become the Giants’ next manager. And should he depart San Diego, Mike Shildt is the leading candidate to be the Padres’ next manager.
Bench coach/offensive coordinator Ryan Flaherty cannot be ruled out as a possibility because he is highly regarded by Preller, the Padres’ President of Baseball Operations, and others in the organization.
And the Padres do plan to conduct multiple interviews should the expected happen and they have a vacancy at manager.
But the hiring of Shildt, 55, would fulfill a succession plan multiple people in baseball operations favored late in the 2023 season.
Shildt, who managed the Cardinals for 3½ seasons from 2018-21, has held the title of Senior Advisor to Player Development and Major Leagues in the Padres organization for the past two years.
In that role, he has become familiar with many of the team’s top minor-league players. But he has spent a majority of his time, including almost all of 2023, with the major league team. Among his duties have been stints filling in coaching first base and third base. Usually, his role was far more nebulous, as he interacted with players and other staff members. Shildt worked with Fernando Tatis Jr. during his comeback from his first wrist surgery in 2022 and has developed a trusting relationship with the Padres star. Shildt also worked with pitcher Blake Snell on his mental approach during the early stages of the ‘23 season.
Shildt interviewed for the Padres’ managerial job in October 2021, shortly after being fired by the Cardinals. The Padres ended up hiring Melvin, who had been with the A’s since 2011.
The Padres advanced to the National League Championship Series in Melvin’s first season before a highly disappointing 82-80 campaign in 2023.
The relationship between Melvin and Preller developed cracks during the ‘22 season, and it devolved into a highly contentious circumstance as the ’23 season wore on.
The men differed over philosophies concerning communication, roster construction and internal conflict resolution. It reached a point where their in-person interaction was minimal and much of the communication between them was done by intermediaries.
It was not until end of the season that Padres Chairman Peter Seidler, who had been largely absent from running the team while dealing with an illness and recovery from a medical procedure, determined both men would return in 2024.
The Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler on the final Friday of the season, presenting an exit strategy for both Melvin and the Padres. Uncertainty loomed until the late last week, when the Giants officially asked for permission to speak to Melvin. Melvin took time to mull the opportunity, which sources said consisted of receiving the assurance he would be the Giants’ leading candidate.
Multiple people around the league said they expect Melvin and the Giants to come to an agreement in the coming days.
Should that happen, the Padres plan to interview internal and external candidates. Preller prefers to hear multiple ideas on almost all matters and likes to find out about potential candidates, if even for the possibility they could fill a future role.
Ryan Flaherty is well-liked within the Padres’ clubouse, and has a particularly close relationship with Manny Machado.
(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Flaherty, 37, is well-liked in the clubhouse and, significantly, has a close relationship with Manny Machado. (The two were teammates in Baltimore for six seasons.)
Flaherty — who, like Shildt, declined comment for this story — joined the Padres in 2020 and was one of three coaches Melvin inherited when he was hired. Flaherty served as interim manager for 11 games in 2022 while Melvin recovered from prostate surgery.
Shildt’s managerial experience and extensive knowledge of all levels of the Padres’ organization is believed to separate him as a candidate. Additionally, multiple sources have said over the past two months that Shildt and Preller share many similar thoughts on synergy between departments.
Shildt took over as manager of the Cardinals during the 2018 season, and they were 41-28 with him at the helm. He then guided the Cardinals to playoff appearances in each of his three full seasons.
Among the 228 men to have managed at least 300 MLB games since 1950, Shildt’s .559 winning percentage is tied for seventh best.
The Cardinals won 17 consecutive games in September 2021 and qualified as the NL’s second wild-card team. Eight days after losing a one-game playoff to the Dodgers, the Cardinals fired Shildt on a Zoom call.
The team’s official explanation for parting ways with Shildt was “philosophical differences.” It was reported that Shildt differed with Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak and others on the direction of the organization. Multiple sources subsequently confirmed that Shildt, who spent 18 years in player development and on the major league coaching staff with the Cardinals, believed strongly in culture and what is widely described as the “Cardinals Way” while Mozeliak was looking to make changes from the organization’s long-held way of doing things.
This past spring, when presented with what some around the situation had said about his interactions with his Cardinals coaching staff, claiming he was at times too demanding, Shildt said: “I pulled the players and pushed the staff. And I wouldn’t push as hard (if given another chance to manage). It’s a fine line, because every night is a thin-margin competition, and I respectfully held people accountable. … I’d been indoctrinated to take these players’ careers seriously. And if I saw something that wasn’t good, I had a huge obligation there, which I’ll still feel, but not nearly as intense.”
As the conflict between Melvin and Preller escalated during the 2023 season, Shildt remained supportive of the manager in internal conversations. That perceived alignment with Melvin caused some in the front office to wonder if Shildt was, indeed, the right man to replace Melvin, who had clashed on many matters with those in baseball operations.
But Shildt’s philosophies regarding how a team prepares, how conflict is handled and the working relationship between manager and front office do largely line up with Preller. And he has repeatedly been proffered in as the favorite to get the job if it becomes available.
If history is any guide, there is no telling what will happen if Melvin departs.
In 2015, it was widely held the Padres were going with Ron Gardenhire before Andy Green was hired. After Green was fired at the end of the 2019 season, the Padres had all but determined Ron Washington would be their next manager before going with Jayce Tingler. Melvin became available after multiple candidates were interviewed following the 2021 season, and Seidler pushed that hire through.
About the only thing that seems unquestionable is that this hire will be crucial for Preller, the architect of rosters that fell short of expectations in 2021 and ‘23 — when the Padres had MLB’s eighth- and third-ranked payroll, respectively. Preller is under contract through 2026, but it is not certain he can survive another year without the team making the postseason.
