WEEK 13 RECAP
Cowboys 41, Seahawks 35: This was only the third time in DK Metcalf’s career, including the playoffs, that he gained over 100 yards and scored multiple touchdowns. The first two times came against the 49ers in Week 8 of 2020 and the Wild-Card round of the playoffs last season.
Colts 31, Titans 28 (OT): Alec Pierce had his best game of the season with three receptions on six targets for 100 yards and a TD against Tennessee. This is probably an outlier performance considering his role didn’t change and his target share held steady.
Chargers 6, Patriots 0: This was the fifth game this season Austin Ekeler’s had 14 or more carries and failed to top 50 rushing yards. He’s only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season. His career-low is 4.2 yards per carry in 2019.
Lions 33, Saints 28: Sam LaPorta’s 140 receiving yards was the most by a rookie tight end since Kyle Pitts — Remember him? — had 163 yards Week 7 of 2021 against the Dolphins. It was also the third-most by a tight end in a game this season.
Falcons 13, Jets 8: Through the first seven games of the season, Tyler Allgeier averaged 15 touches per games for Atlanta. Since Week 8, Allgeier has averaged 10 touches per game. He’s played more than 30 percent of the offensive snaps once in the last five games.
Cardinals 24, Steelers 10: Trey McBride is averaging 2.2 yards per route run this season. According to Pro Football Focus, McBride joins Travis Kelce and George Kittle, who are both between 2.2-2.3 with no other tight ends above 2.0.
Dolphins 45, Commanders 15: Terry McLaurin was held without a catch for only the second time in his career with Washington. The other time was Week 14 in 2021 against the Cowboys. He received only three targets in both games.
Texans 22, Broncos 17: Dynamic rookie receiver Tank Dell suffered a broken leg against Denver and will miss the rest of this season. Noah Brown had missed the previous two games with a knee injury, but he’s healthy now and will become the clear No. 2 receiver for Houston going forward. Brown had at least six receptions and 153 yards in two straight games before he hurt his knee. He’s also averaging 20.9 yards per reception.
Buccaneers 21, Panthers 18: Mike Evans had 162 receiving yards against Carolina to surpass 1,000 yards in a season for the 10th straight year. Evans is the NFL’s all-time leader in most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start a career. If he does it again in 2024, he’ll tie Jerry Rice’s record of 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.
Rams 36, Browns 19: Elijah Moore had a season-high 12 targets against Los Angeles, partly due to Amari Cooper suffering a concussion, but also because of his familiarity with Joe Flacco from their time with the Jets. Moore will likely continue to see a boost in target share as long as Flacco is under center, regardless of Cooper’s health.
49ers 42, Eagles 19: Brock Purdy has officially started a full season’s worth of games for San Francisco. Purdy is 14-3 as a starter in the regular season while completing 69.1 percent of his passes for 4,559 yards, 36 TDs and only 10 interceptions.
Packers 27, Chiefs 19: Rookie receiver Rashee Rice played 69 percent of Kansas City’s offensive snaps, which is a new career-high. Rice caught eight balls for the second straight game and has received at least nine targets in the last two games. He remains the only Chiefs wide receiver worth rostering.
Bengals 34, Jaguars 31 (OT): Only Geno Smith, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy had more fantasy points at QB than Jake Browning in Week 13. He was lights out against Jacksonville on Monday night — 32-for-37 for 354 yards and two total TDs — and he’s improved in every extended stretch of playing time this season.
Feel free to hit me up @UTEddieBrown on X, formerly known as Twitter, with any specific lineup questions I don’t cover in my posts.
Here’s my best bets for Week 14:
NEW ENGLAND AT PITTSBURGH
Obvious starters: Steelers D/ST.
Who to start: Ezekiel Elliott (NE) has RB2/flex upside with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined with a high ankle sprain. Najee Harris (PIT) is the overall RB12 in standard formats (RB11 in PPR) since Week 7. Jaylen Warren (PIT) is the overall RB15 in standard formats (RB13 in PPR) since Week 7. Diontae Johnson (PIT) has at least four receptions, 50 yards or a TD in five of the last seven games.
Who to sit: JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) has 16 targets in his last five games. Hunter Henry (NE) remains TD-dependent with only four targets in the last two games. George Pickens (PIT) is TD-dependent with only 17 receptions in the last six games. Pat Freiermuth (PIT) faces a defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Sleeper: Vegas can’t possibly set the over/under for this game low enough, making the Patriots D/ST a viable streaming option if you’re in a pinch.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA
Obvious starters: Mike Evans (TB), Rachaad White (TB), Bijan Robinson (ATL).
Who to start: Baker Mayfield (TB) deserves streaming consideration as the overall QB11 since Week 7. Drake London (ATL) faces a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces a defense that has allowed 31 receptions for 386 yards and three TDs to tight ends in the last five games. The Falcons D/ST is a streaming option at home against an offense that has allowed 10 sacks and committed four turnovers in the last two games.
Who to sit: Chris Godwin (TB) is the overall WR46 across all formats since Week 9. The Buccaneers D/ST has produced double-digit fantasy points once in the last eight games. Desmond Ridder (ATL) only has value in superflex formats despite a good matchup.
Sleeper: Cade Otton (TB) faces a defense that has allowed 26 receptions for 332 yards to tight ends in the last three games and has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season.
DETROIT AT CHICAGO
Obvious starters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), Sam LaPorta (DET), David Montgomery (DET), Justin Fields (CHI), DJ Moore (CHI), Cole Kmet (CHI).
Who to start: The Lions D/ST faces an offense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Who to sit: Jared Goff (DET) only has four TD passes in four outdoor road games this season. Jameson Williams (DET) only has nine receptions in the last six games. Josh Reynolds (DET) only has 20 targets in the last seven games. I’m fading Khalil Herbert (CHI), D’Onta Foreman (CHI) and Roschon Johnson (CHI) against a defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Sleeper: Darnell Mooney (CHI) faces a defense that has allowed seven TD receptions to wide receivers in the last four games.
INDIANAPOLIS AT CINCINNATI
Obvious starters: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), Zack Moss (IND), Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), Joe Mixon (CIN).
Who to start: The Colts D/ST is the top defense in fantasy since Week 9, averaging 17.5 points per game.
Who to sit: Josh Downs (IND) is the overall WR93 in standard formats (WR81 in PPR) since Week 9. Gardner Minshew (IND) is the overall QB18 since taking over for Anthony Richardson in Week 6. Tee Higgins (CIN) only saw three targets in his return from injury last week. Tyler Boyd (CIN) only has 11 receptions for 82 yards in the last three games. This is a difficult matchup to trust Jake Browning (CIN), no matter how good he looked against the Jaguars.
Sleeper: Tanner Hudson (CIN) has at least four receptions in five straight games.
JACKSONVILLE AT CLEVELAND
Obvious starters: Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC), David Njoku (CLE), Browns D/ST.
Who to start: The Jaguars D/ST faces an offense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Jerome Ford (CLE) is the overall RB17 in standard formats (RB15 in PPR) since Week 2. Kareem Hunt (CLE) remains a borderline flex option as the overall RB37 in standard formats (RB39 in PPR) since Week 9. Elijah Moore (CLE) is the overall WR28 in standard formats (WR27 in PPR) since Week 10.
Who to sit: Trevor Lawrence (JAC) might play, but it’s hard to trust him on one leg against this defense. Calvin Ridley (JAC) faces a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Evan Engram (JAC) faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Zay Jones (JAC) remains a boom-or-bust candidate. Amari Cooper (CLE) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol.
Sleeper: Joe Flacco (CLE) faces a defense that has allowed seven TD passes to quarterbacks in the last three games.
CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS
Obvious starters: Alvin Kamara (NO), Chris Olave (NO), Saints D/ST.
Who to start: Chuba Hubbard (CAR) has at least 17 touches in five of the last seven games. This is a good matchup for Taysom Hill (NO) if he’s active.
Who to sit: Adam Thielen (CAR) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Miles Sanders (CAR) hasn’t produced double-digit fantasy points since Week 3. DJ Chark Jr. (CAR) remains a boom-or-bust candidate. I’m fading both Derek Carr (NO) and Jameis Winston (NO) against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Juwan Johnson (NO) faces a defense that has only allowed 18 receptions to tight ends in the last five games.
Sleeper: Jonathan Mingo (CAR) has at least 60 yards in two straight games, while averaging seven targets in the last four games.
HOUSTON AT N.Y. JETS
Obvious starters: CJ Stroud (HOU), Nico Collins (HOU), Garrett Wilson (NYJ), Breece Hall (NYJ), Jets D/ST.
Who to start: Both Devin Singletary (HOU) and Dameon Pierce (HOU) have flex appeal against a defense allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. The Texans D/ST faces an offense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. Tyler Conklin (NYJ) is a solid streaming option against a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends — monitor Conklin’s hamstring injury.
Who to sit: Dalton Schultz (HOU) still hasn’t practiced with a hamstring injury. I’m fading Noah Brown (HOU) and Robert Woods (HOU) against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
Sleeper: Brevin Jordan (HOU) deserves streaming consideration if Schultz remains sidelined.
L.A. RAMS AT BALTIMORE
Obvious starters: Kyren Williams (LAR), Puka Nacua (LAR), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Zay Flowers (BAL), Ravens D/ST.
Who to start: Cooper Kupp (LAR) maintains flex appeal as the overall WR35 in standard formats (WR36 in PPR) since Week 5. Both Gus Edwards (BAL) and Keaton Mitchell (BAL) maintain flex appeal despite a difficult matchup. Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) is the overall WR28 in standard formats (WR35 in PPR) since Week 9.
Who to sit: Tyler Higbee (LAR) remains TD-dependent with only 13 targets in the last four games. Matthew Stafford (LAR) faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sleeper: Isaiah Likely (BAL) faces a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.
MINNESOTA AT LAS VEGAS
Obvious starters: Justin Jefferson (MIN), TJ Hockenson (MIN), Davante Adams (LV), Josh Jacobs (LV).
Who to start: Jordan Addison (MIN) maintains WR3/flex upside as the overall WR19 in standard formats (WR20 in PPR) through 13 weeks. Alexander Mattison (MIN) faces a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. The Vikings D/ST is the fourth-best scoring defense in fantasy since Week 4. Jakobi Meyers (LV) maintains his flex appeal as the overall WR24 in standard formats (WR25 in PPR) through 13 weeks. Michael Mayer (LV) is the overall TE11 in standard formats (TE10 in PPR) in his last three games.
Who to sit: Ty Chandler (MIN) remains a boom-or-bust candidate despite the good matchup, because of inconsistent usage. KJ Osborn (MIN) only has eight targets in his last three games.
Sleeper: I anticipate Joshua Dobbs (MIN) bouncing back in a big way from his four interception performance against the Bears in Week 12.
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO
Obvious starters: DK Metcalf (SEA), Christian McCaffrey (SF), George Kittle (SF), Deebo Samuel (SF), Brandon Aiyuk (SF), 49ers D/ST.
Who to start: Tyler Lockett (SEA) maintains WR3/flex upside as the overall WR23 in standard formats (WR17 in PPR) since Week 6. Brock Purdy (SF) is the overall QB2 since Week 10 — only Dak Prescott has scored more fantasy points in that time-frame.
Who to sit: I’m fading Kenneth Walker (SEA) and Zach Charbonnett (SEA) if either are active against a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) was held to 41 yards on two receptions (three targets) against the 49ers in Week 12. Geno Smith (SEA) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Sleeper: DeeJay Dallas (SEA) might have some PPR upside as a flex play if both Walker and Charbonnett are inactive.
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY
Obvious starters: Josh Allen (BUF), Stefon Diggs (BUF), James Cook (BUF), Dalton Kincaid (BUF), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Travis Kelce (KC), Isiah Pacheco (KC).
Who to start: Rashee Rice (KC) is the overall WR13 in standard formats (WR11 in PPR) the last two weeks.
Who to sit: Gabe Davis (BUF) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with only eight receptions in the last four games. I’m fading the Bills D/ST on the road against Mahomes.
Sleeper: Allen has thrown at least one interception in eight straight games, making the Chiefs D/ST a bounce-back candidate at home in a big game.
DENVER AT L.A. CHARGERS
Obvious starters: Javonte Williams (DEN), Courtland Sutton (DEN), Austin Ekeler (LAC), Keenan Allen (LAC), Justin Herbert (LAC).
Who to start: Russell Wilson (DEN) faces a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Gerald Everett (LAC) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends.
Who to sit: Samaje Perine (DEN) and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) are both TD-dependent despite the good matchup. I’m fading the Broncos D/ST against an offense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Quentin Johnston (LAC) remains TD-dependent with only eight receptions in the last three games.
Sleeper: This could be the spot where we finally get a big game from Jerry Jeudy (DEN), who faces a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: Jalen Hurts (PHI), AJ Brown (PHI), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Dak Prescott (DAL), Tony Pollard (DAL), Jake Ferguson (DAL).
Who to start: DeVonta Smith (PHI) is the overall WR9 in standard formats (WR6 in PPR) since Week 8. Dallas Goedert (PHI) — if he’s active — faces a defense that has allowed a TD to tight ends in two of the last three games. I expect the Cowboys D/ST to make a statement at home in a big game. Brandin Cooks (DAL) has scored a TD in five of the last seven games.
Who to sit: D’Andre Swift (PHI) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Eagles D/ST faces an offense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Sleeper: Michael Gallup (DAL) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers.
TENNESSEE AT MIAMI
Obvious starters: DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), Tyreek Hill (MIA), Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Raheem Mostert (MIA).
Who to start: Only bench Derrick Henry (TEN) if he’s active when you have other obvious starters at your disposal. Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) faces a defense that has allowed at least six receptions or a TD to tight ends in four of the last five games. De’Von Achane (MIA) has scored multiple TDs in three of his last five games. The Dolphins D/ST is the top-scoring defense in fantasy since Week 11.
Who to sit: Will Levis (TEN) only has value in superflex formats.
Sleeper: A negative game script could lead to more targets out of the backfield for Tyjae Spears (TEN) and an overall boost in usage even if Henry is healthy.
GREEN BAY AT N.Y. GIANTS
Obvious starters: Saquon Barkley (NYG).
Who to start: Jordan Love (GB) is the overall QB9 through 13 weeks in his first season as a starter. AJ Dillon (GB) faces a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs. Both Romeo Doubs (GB) and Jayden Reed (GB) maintain WR3/flex upside against a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Who to sit: Both Aaron Jones (GB) and Christian Watson (GB) are dealing with injuries and could be doubtful for Monday night. Tucker Kraft (GB) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG) and Jalin Hyatt (NYG) only make sense as flex options if you’re absolutely desperate.
Sleeper: The Packers D/ST faces an offense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
