Jedi Master Yoda tops my Christmas tree, his green lightsaber illuminating my living room.
This must mean one thing: It’s officially mock draft season!
When I began analyzing the NFL Draft over a decade ago, many probably believed I was nuts for posting mock drafts before the college football or NFL season was even over.
And they must have thought I was certifiably insane when I decided to release an updated mock every single week leading up to the draft itself.
Very few draft-focused websites were doing this online, let alone for a major metropolitan newspaper.
Now, we’re living in a world where analyzing the draft and it’s eligible prospects is a 24/7/365 business, not a side hustle, and it’s clear April couldn’t come soon enough for fans of the Bears, Patriots and Cardinals.
I included 17 of these players in my way-too-early projections back in May, but a lot has changed in seven months, and we still have five months before these picks are made for real.
Frankly, the world could be a vastly different place in late April, but I’ll be here to guide you through it.
Part of my mock-draft preamble explains it is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they’d match up well with considering the draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.
Last season, I was the third-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I’m tied for first overall (out of 172) over the past five years.
The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL’s second season — the NFL doesn’t have an off-season — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.
Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.
Here’s my first 2024 NFL Mock Draft:
First round
1. Chicago from Carolina (1-11) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC, Jr.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles could continue to build around Justin Fields by drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. (a generational talent) or trading this pick for a king’s ransom. But if there’s a new coaching staff in Chicago, conventional wisdom suggests they’ll want their own franchise quarterback. Williams is special off-platform and will likely become Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s third quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy and go first overall, joining Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL
2. New England (2-10) — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, So.
The post-Tom Brady era hasn’t been kind to the Patriots or Bill Belichick. This could be the first time Belichick drafts inside the Top-5 as a head coach. Maye’s prototypical size (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) and elite arm talent will cause some to question whether Williams is really the top QB in this draft class. Top needs: QB, OL, TE
Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison, left, catches a touchdown over Michigan State defensive back Chance Rucker.
(Jay LaPrete / Associated Press)
3. Arizona (3-10) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St., Jr.
I’m sure GM Monti Ossenfort wouldn’t complain if he were able to fill one of the Cardinals’ biggest needs with the top overall prospect in the draft and not have to trade any draft capital to do so. If we were to “Weird Science” a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce Harrison. He’s a route tactician who features prototypical size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), strong hands and athleticism with Hall of Fame NFL lineage (he’s the son of Colts legend Marvin Harrison). The last receiver to be drafted inside the Top-3 was Calvin Johnson in 2007. Top needs: WR, CB, G
4. Washington (4-9) — Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame, Jr.
The Commanders haven’t had a franchise left tackle to build around since Trent Williams. The massive Irish tackle (6-8, 315) continues piling up All-American honors after another successful season in South Bend and is likely the best prospect at the position since Penei Sewell in 2021. Top needs: Edge, OL, DB
5. Chicago (4-8) — Olu Fashanu, T, Penn St., Jr.
Regardless who the Bears have under center, they’ll need to upgrade his protection. Fashanu would’ve likely ended up in the first-round discussion had he declared last season. There’s still room for growth in the run game, but he’s already an elite pass-protector. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL
6. New York Giants (4-8) — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, Jr.
The G-Men will definitely be in the quarterback discussion leading up to the draft, but if they decide to give Daniel Jones another shot, they’ll need to find him a true No. 1 receiver. Nabers’ body control and route-running are top-notch and he leads the FBS in receiving yards (1,546). Top needs: DL, RB, WR
7. Tennessee (4-8) — Keon Coleman, WR, Florida St., Jr.
It looks like Will Levis will be the starting QB in 2024 for the Titans, so he’ll need some weapons to target outside of DeAndre Hopkins. Coleman, a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist, features a combination of size (6-4, 215), strength and speed uncommon in receivers. Top needs: WR, CB, OL
8. New York Jets (4-8) — JC Latham, T, Alabama, Jr.
Protecting a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers has to be the highest priority for GM Joe Douglas. Latham is a super-sized tackle (6-6, 360) with elite strength and movement skills. Top needs: OL, WR, S
9. New Orleans (5-7) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida St., Jr.
The Saints are another team that wouldn’t surprise me if they targeted a QB, but here we shore up a once elite defense. Like Penn State’s Fashanu, Verse would’ve likely been a first-round pick had he declared after last season. He produced nine sacks after transferring from Albany to Tallahassee for his sophomore season. Verse followed that up with another nine sacks to help the Seminoles finish the regular season undefeated. Top needs: LB, OL, Edge
10. Las Vegas (5-7) — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, Sr.
This is another spot where a new coaching staff likely means a new QB. Daniels had a historic season in Baton Rouge, breaking Joe Burrow’s NCAA passing efficiency record with a rating of 208 as a senior. The Heisman finalist also produced 3,812 passing yards, 40 passing touchdowns and only four interceptions. He added 1,134 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground for good measure. Top needs: QB, CB, RB
11. Tampa Bay (5-7) — Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, Sr.
I’m not sure Baker Mayfield did enough to keep the Buccaneers from targeting a signal-caller. Nix has come a long ways from his underwhelming days at Auburn. The Heisman finalist has improved his game almost across the board, showcasing better decision-making and accuracy, while maintaining his play-making ability off-platform. The Campbell Trophy winner (nation’s best scholar-athlete) will be a 24-year-old rookie, which could diminish his draft stock a bit. Top needs: QB, LB, DB
Alabama defensive back Kool-Aid McKinstry plays to the camera before a September game.
(Vasha Hunt / Associated Press)
12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama, Jr.
The Chargers traded cornerback JC Jackson (and his massive contract) back to the Patriots earlier this year and have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. McKinstry was first-team All-SEC as a true sophomore. He features prototypical size (6-1, 194) with speed and brings physicality in coverage and against the run. He’s also proven to be a dynamic punt-returner. Top needs: CB, RB, T
13. Buffalo (6-6) — Jer’zhan Newton, DL, Illinois, Jr.
AJ Epenesa, Shaq Lawson and Leonard Floyd are all facing free agency after this season, so an influx of talent on the defensive line might be a necessity for the Bills come April. Newton was likely a Day 2 selection had he entered the draft after last season, which motivated him to return to school. He may be undersized (6-2, 295) for some teams, but he’s been a disruptive force the last two seasons against the run and pass. Top needs: DL, G, WR
14. Seattle (6-6) — Kamren Kitchens, S, Miami, Jr.
Quandre Diggs could be a potential cap casualty after this season, and Jamal Adams hasn’t played a full season since the Seahawks traded for him in 2020. Pairing Kinchens with corners Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could help coach Pete Carroll establish a new “Legion of Boom.” He’s one of the most versatile defensive backs in this draft class, and thrives in coverage or as a run defender. Top needs: LB, DL, IOL
15. Denver (6-6) — Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama, Jr.
The Broncos need a bona fide threat on the outside to pair with Zach Allen, while he wreaks havoc on the interior. Turner was overshadowed by Will Anderson Jr. his previous two seasons at Tuscaloosa — he had 8.5 sacks as a true freshman in 2021 — but he’s capable of being a star in his own right. This season, he added some bulk to his frame and displayed more power to go with his already impressive speed-rush capabilities. Top needs: Edge, LB, DB
16. Los Angeles Rams (6-6) — Amarius Mims, T, Georgia, Jr.
The Rams’ offensive line rebounded in a major way this season, but they lack depth at tackle and could use someone to challenge Alaric Jackson on the left side. Mims is still very raw, but he towers (6-7, 340) over most of the competition and he moves easy considering his size. Top needs: T, Edge, LB
17. Cincinnati (6-6) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, Jr.
Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are free agents for the Bengals after this season. I doubt Bowers will be available here come April, but if he were, there’s no way Cincinnati would pass on him. Bowers is the most heralded prospect at the position since Kyle Pitts in 2021. The 2022 Mackey Award winner has produced 175 receptions for 2,538 yards and 26 TDs in three seasons for the two-time champion Bulldogs. Pitts had 100 receptions for 1,492 yards and 18 TDs in three seasons at Florida. Bowers could crack the Top-10 when all is said and done. Top needs: WR, OL, DL
18. Arizona from Houston (7-5) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson, Jr.
The Cardinals landed the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with their first pick of the first round. Here they can continue to build a young and talented secondary. Wiggins might need to add some strength to his frame (6-2, 185), but he already has elite ball skills and athletic abilities. Top needs: WR, CB, G
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. could be a good fit in Atlanta.
(Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)
19. Atlanta (6-6) — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.
It doesn’t appear Desmond Ridder is the answer at quarterback for the Falcons. Each of Penix’s four years at Indiana ended in injury, but he’s been as good as it gets the last two seasons for the Huskies. The Heisman Trophy finalist is a big-armed, athletic talent who might get nitpicked for his unorthodox throwing style and being a lefty. Top needs: QB, WR, Edge
20. Minnesota (6-6) — JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan, Jr.
I anticipate the Vikings doing their due diligence on this class of quarterbacks (and potentially moving up in the draft) if they’re unable to re-sign Kirk Cousins after this season. McCarthy led a run-heavy offense in Ann Arbor, but he’s flashed impressive arm talent, especially with intermediate throws, with big-play ability as a thrower and runner. Top needs: QB, Edge, OL
21. Green Bay (6-6) — Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon St., Jr.
It’s time for the Packers to find a successor to banged-up veteran David Bakhtiari. Fuaga is a well-rounded mauler at tackle and could be the Beavers’ first offensive lineman ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Top needs: DB, OL, RB
22. Indianapolis (7-5) — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, Jr.
Wide receiver would be a top priority in the offseason if the Colts lose Michael Pittman Jr. in free agency. Odunze features elite size (6-3, 215), speed and strength, and will compete to become the second wide receiver drafted in prime-time come April. Top needs: LB, WR, DB
23. Pittsburgh (7-5) — Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa, Jr.
Patrick Peterson will be 34 in 2024 and could potentially be a cap casualty after this season. DeJean can play outside or inside at cornerback, and even safety due to his size (6-1, 207) and speed combo. He’s also one of this draft’s top playmakers. Top needs: CB, C, LB
Penn State defensive end Chop Robinson (44) could help a developing Texans defense.
(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)
24. Houston from Cleveland (7-5) — Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn St., Jr.
The Texans hit it out of the park by taking CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. in the first round this year. I anticipate head coach DeMeco Ryans will continue to build a defense to pair with Stroud’s fireworks on offense, likely based on the blueprint he learned in San Francisco (all pass rushers, all the time). Robinson’s still developing his technique, but his first-step explosiveness and speed-to-power variation is a rare commodity. Top needs: OL, DL, CB
25. Kansas City (8-4) — Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Chiefs have one wide receiver on their current roster who doesn’t force Patrick Mahomes to constantly turn water into wine, and that’s Rashee Rice, who is having a solid rookie season all things considered. I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of Worthy during his time in Austin, and his world-class speed will likely be one of the highlights in Indianapolis at the combine next March. Top needs: WR, DT, CB
26. Jacksonville (8-4) — Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA, Sr.
The Jaguars could lose Josh Allen in free agency. Latu leads college football with 64 QB pressures and features a pro-ready arsenal of pass-rush moves. Medical evaluations of a neck injury he suffered during his time with Washington will have a big impact on his draft stock. Top needs: Edge, OL, WR
27. Miami (9-3) — Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan, Sr.
Christian Wilkins will be a coveted free agent this offseason if the Dolphins don’t slap the franchise tag on him. Jenkins’ sack totals won’t impress anyone, but he routinely draws a double-team, so there’s still upside at the next level. His abilities as a run defender give him a very high floor as a pro. Top needs: DL, OL, WR
28. Dallas (9-3) — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama, So.
Both Stephon Gilmore and Jourdan Lewis are facing free agency for the Cowboys, and Trevon Diggs suffered a torn ACL in September. Based on upside, Arnold could be ranked higher on some draft boards than his Crimson Tide teammate Kool-Aid McKinstry. He’s relatively inexperienced at cornerback — he was a former safety recruit — but he’s been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage. Top needs: T, DB, WR
Washington defensive end Bralen Trice (8) looks towards Utah quarterback Bryson Barnes (16).
(Lindsey Wasson / Associated Press)
29. Detroit (9-3) — Bralen Trice, Edge, Washington, Jr.
The Lions have several defensive linemen who will be entering a contract season in 2024. Trice shares similar physical traits with Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson and is relentless against the pass or run. Top needs: CB, DL, LB
30. Baltimore (9-3) — JT Tuimoloau, Edge, Ohio St., Jr.
Defensive lineman Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike and Brent Urban are all facing free agency for the Ravens. Tuimoloa, a former five-star recruit, is an all-around defensive end who is more smooth and savvy than explosive, but features the size (6.4, 270) Baltimore covets at the position. Top needs: DT, WR, RB
31. San Francisco (9-3) — Graham Barton, OL, Duke, Sr.
One of the few “weaknesses” of the 49ers is at right tackle and guard. Barton could thrive at both (and possibly center) in the NFL. Some scouts will question his size/length for the tackle position — he’s 6-5, 314 pounds — but 34 of his 39 career starts were at left tackle for the Blue Devils (the other five were at center). He’s a technically sound, sticky blocker with quickness and competitive tendencies that deserves first-round consideration. Top needs: OL, DT, CB
32. Philadelphia (10-2) — Kalen King, CB, Penn St., Jr.
The Eagles’ secondary has struggled mightily in 2023. King led all cornerbacks in the country with a 93.3 overall grade and an 18.3 passer rating allowed in single-coverage as a sophomore, according to Pro Football Focus. His elite athleticism should carry him through the draft process despite inconsistent play as a junior for the Nittany Lions. Top needs: DT, DB, Edge
