BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF is on course to overtake Grayscale’s GBTC in total bitcoin holdings in just two weeks, but the latter could run out of bitcoin entirely in 14 weeks, according to blockchain analytics firm Arkham.
Grayscale’s GBTC could run out of bitcoin in 96 days, based on the current rate of redemptions.
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Posted March 25, 2024 at 2:26 am EST.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have taken center stage over the last few months – but for all the talk around BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF setting records with daily inflows, perhaps the bigger story could be how quickly Grayscale Investments’ fund will run out of bitcoin.
Blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence noted that at the current rate of redemptions, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could run out of bitcoin to sell in just 96 days. Those calculations were based on the 277,470 BTC that Grayscale transferred out of their wallets for redemptions since the fund was first converted into an ETF on Jan. 11.
Grayscale started the year holding 618.28K BTC for their Bitcoin Trust GBTC.
They now hold only 356.44K BTC.
If they carry on like this, there’s only 14 weeks until they run out for good.
Follow Grayscale on Arkham:https://t.co/K7P3NmHxvf
— Arkham (@ArkhamIntel) March 23, 2024
The firm also noted that GBTC held 356,440 BTC in their wallets as of March 23, compared to the 618,280 BTC back in January.
Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) boasts an average daily inflow figure of 4,120 BTC every day, worth a little over $274 million at current prices.
As things stand, some market participants have predicted that IBIT will surpass GBTC’s total bitcoin holdings in as early as two weeks.
Still, another theory is that the worst could be over for GBTC. Last week, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that the recent uptick in flows was likely related to bankruptcies, based on the size and consistency.
The more I think about it the more likely the uptick in flows is related to the bankruptcies bc of the size and consistency. The flows in Feb showed what retail outflows look like, smaller and random pattern. Also any Gemini/Genisis outflows likely buying btc w cash hence market…
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 22, 2024
