On the surface, you have to think this is the last shot for A.J. Preller, the Padres’ president of baseball operations. He’s been stitching together teams in San Diego since late 2014 with no division titles and one full-season playoff appearance.
It’s been a run filled with bold stabs, wild spending and highs sandwiched by bewildering lows.
The amount of leash afforded by late, beloved owner Peter Seidler baffled plenty across baseball. It far eclipsed patience, in a results and financial sense, as the organization tinkered with big names, attacked the international market, re-calibrated the farm system and cranked the wrench on almost everything in between.
The payoff: A stirring NLCS run in 2022, bookended by a collapse Seidler termed once-in-a-century and a season considered one of the most disappointing in modern history with a roster stuffed with massive contracts and All Stars.
Sure, the Padres made the playoffs in pandemic-shortened 2020. That season remains a debatable one to consider for everyone in the game. It feels like an outlier, though the crushing injury losses to rotation anchors Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet torpedoed the Padres in the NLDS against the Dodgers.
The net result, however, has been a lot more losing than winning — by a wide margin.
Preller presents new manager Andy Green with a Padres jersey in 2015.
(San Diego Union-Tribune)
Meanwhile, the turnstile of managers and coaches under Preller has continued to spin. He quickly chased off Bud Black, now running the dugout for the Rockies. A pair of rookies, Andy Green and Jayce Tingler, followed. In a nod to experience, Bob Melvin came next.
On Tuesday, Preller introduced Mike Shildt, the former manager of the Cardinals, as the Padres’ new skipper.
How many general managers survive that many chances, that much churn and nearly a decade without as much as a whiff of challenging for a division crown? Zip. Zero. Zilch.
Major League Baseball, with its billions at a stake, is a win-now business for those truly trying. The tolerance level for mediocrity or worse is minuscule among franchises chasing rings. The Red Sox alone have employed three GMs in the time Preller has been in San Diego.
Preller has to get this one right. In addition to all the chances he has banked, there’s a tricky window within which to win for these Padres. The combination of high-dollar contracts and stars who will age more quickly than those in the front office hope means the best shot at piling up titles — or one, for starters — began two seasons ago.
Gold Glove right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and Silver Slugging left fielder Juan Soto, if he remains with the Padres, constitute the youth brigade. But pitcher Yu Darvish is 37 and not a free agent until he’s 42. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, two players that have tightened purse strings for a team set on potential shortstops, are not free agents until their age-41 seasons.
Preller listens after announcing new manager Jayce Tingler in 2019.
(Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Preller and baseball operations built this group to be winning and winning big by now. Substantial questions about the pitching rotation and pieces that include center field and a dependably big bat at first base linger.
The wild card in all of this is Eric Kutsenda, the trusted business partner of Seidler who has been appointed chairman and interim control person. We don’t know him. We don’t know how he operates. We don’t know his history, if there’s much of one, with Preller.
If the Padres flop again, does Kutsenda feel empowered and entrenched enough to push a button of that size and reset the organization’s primary baseball architect? Seidler remained steadfast in his loyalty for Preller, which you heard in Preller’s voice Tuesday before he introduced Shildt.
What is the dynamic between Preller and Kutsenda? What will that grow into? Will the Padres put the pieces together and make a big run in 2024, fueled in part to win for Seidler? Or will they underwhelm, again?
New manager Bob Melvin and Preller greet each other at his introduction in 2021.
(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Preller has not proven he can mesh, long term, with a manager in a way that translates to consistent winning. Shildt could be that perfect fit he has hunted, but the track record shows it’s far, far from a given.
The presence of Machado, Bogaerts, Tatis and possibly Soto alone indicate this team should win plenty of games. The other puzzle pieces will matter mightily, but that core represents a solid starting point. It’s hard to believe the group will struggle collectively for as long as it did last season.
So it comes down to Preller’s brush strokes around the edges. You can’t criticize his tenure without acknowledging his success. Picking up pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha last season amounted to master strokes that solidified one of the strongest starting rotations in the game. Little moves like scooping up backup catcher Gary Sanchez paid off, as well.
Preller’s ability to rebuild the farm system after the draining Soto trade has been impressive so far. Still, it has to lead to big and continual winning. No lesser standard, given the current state of the franchise, is acceptable.
The clock is ticking, more loudly by the minute. One more chance? Maybe. On paper, yes. Absolutely. Given the flux inside the Padres front office, though, that seems impossible to predict.
Strange times for the Padres. They need them to be winning times, too.
