In an election where the cost of living was a driving force, communities across San Diego County voted to raise their taxes.
Local, state and national elections had many different issues. But a common thread was economic concerns, from the macro view about lingering effects of past high inflation to daily worries about the price of eggs and gasoline.
Economic indicators for months have been pointing to an increasingly thriving economy, but that didn’t seem to assuage large segments of the electorate that still feel they’re struggling.
In that context, it’s rather remarkable that local voters approved so many sales tax increases and tax-financed school bonds.
With many ballots still to be counted, any assessment could be subject to change in the coming days. But as of Friday, eight of 13 local tax measures appeared headed for approval, three definitively were rejected and a couple were still up in the air.
In the uncertain category are two of the largest measures: the city of San Diego’s Measure E, a 1- cent sales tax for government operations and services, and the countywide Measure G, a half-cent sales tax for transportation. Both were just under 50 percent going into the weekend.
It appears the majority of nearly two dozen local school bonds were passed, with eight likely rejected and a small handful on the bubble.
General local sales tax increases need simple-majority approval from voters, while local school bonds require 55 percent. Statewide, voters approved Proposition 2, a $10 billion construction bond for schools and community colleges, which only needed a simple majority.
Voters are no doubt influenced by their personal economic situation, but that doesn’t mean they tune out the need for improvements to schools, parks, infrastructure and public safety networks.
“High prices might be a leading issue, but it’s not the only issue,” said Michael Zucchet, general manager of the San Diego Municipal Employees Association and a major proponent of the Measure E sales tax.
“People might think there’s going to be a return on their (tax) investment,” he added.
Haney Hong, president of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association agreed in general, but added that people are particularly discerning when they vote to approve taxes and bonds.
“There seems to be lots of willingness to pay taxes if voters trust their government,” he said. “That’s the vibe I’m getting. It’s not so much anti-tax sentiment but more of ‘which agencies do I think are going to deliver?’”
Hong drew a comparison between Measure HH, a $3.5 billion bond for the San Diego Community College District, and the city’s Measure E. The taxpayer group supported numerous tax and bond proposals, including HH, and opposed a smaller number, including Measure E and the Measure G transit tax.
The community college district and city overlap, yet the bond received nearly 60 percent support. He suggested voter assessments of how well the respective governments are run helped guide their decisions.
“I think the premise is problematic,” Zucchet said about Hong’s comparison. “There’s a giant difference between bonds and a tax increases.”
The bond had a very specific purpose – to repair and upgrade community college facilities. The general sales tax money isn’t earmarked, though city officials have pledged to spend it on infrastructure, public safety and other services.
Still, if a government has had problems, particularly regarding how money is spent, voters may be reluctant to open their wallets. The city of San Diego has had its share of controversies, such as costly real estate deals and increasing homelessness despite significant funding to reduce it.
Further, ballot titles and the wording of the proposals put before voters can also have an impact on whether people vote for or against.
Nevertheless, other cities embraced new or extended general sales taxes, sometimes by landslide margins. A tax extension in El Cajon was approved with more than 67 percent of the vote.
“El Cajon is not an ‘I love taxes group,’” Hong said.
Conversely, El Cajon voters rejected a bond measure for the overlapping Cajon Valley Union School District. (The taxpayers association endorsed both the bond and tax increase.)
The school district has become embroiled in a dispute over a state law barring districts from requiring schools to tell parents about a student’s gender identity change. The school board defied the law and ordered staff to inform parents of such identity matters.
Beyond the simmering culture war, questions have been raised about the Cajon Valley school superintendent’s use of a district credit card.
In Lemon Grove, a 1-cent sales tax increase was approved with more than 70 percent of the vote, despite turbulence on the City Council over the past couple of years. Meanwhile, the mayor and a council incumbent are on the verge of being voted out of office.
“Political turmoil is not necessarily an indication of a poorly run government,” Hong said.
Lemon Grove School District bonds also passed easily.
School bonds appeared to have a tougher time in rural communities, with several losing or heading in that direction. There are exceptions to every rule, and the Warner Unified School District is among them, with its bond measure receiving about 60 percent of the vote.
Political and demographic dynamics also play into tax and bond elections, such as conservative areas more inclined to reject them.
The geographic breakdown on the Measure E vote in San Diego shows a familiar split. It’s strongest support came from less-affluent, ethnically diverse Democratic communities south of Interstate 8 — areas that often have long complained about being short-changed on public services. Opposition was strongest in more affluent, less Democratic northern neighborhoods with better city services, along with some coastal areas.
On a purely economic level, that may seem counterintuitive. The people who likely are most stressed by the high cost of living were the most game to raise their own taxes.
What they said
Matt Rexroad (@MattRexroad), GOP consultant and former Yolo County supervisor.
“The Republican Party has seen this movie before… so what are we going to do to make sure 2026 is not 2018? Can we please be smart about this?”
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