WEEK 12 RECAP
Packers 29, Lions 22: Jayden Reed has benefited greatly from QB Jordan Love finding his groove recently. The rookie receiver is the overall WR11 in standard formats (WR10 in PPR) since Week 8 with 20 receptions (28 targets) for 266 yards and two touchdowns. Reed has also added 83 yards on six carries and a TD for good measure over that span.
Cowboys 45, Commanders 10: Dak Prescott is averaging 28.3 fantasy points per game since Week 6. Prescott has produced at least 24.9 fantasy points in five of the last six games and is currently the overall QB3 through 12 weeks — behind only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.
49ers 31, Seahawks 13: Deebo Samuel had seven receptions for 79 yards on nine targets and a rushing TD at Seattle. The Seahawks are one of three teams that have run zone defense on over 82 percent of pass plays this season. Samuel usually destroys against zone. If a team favors man coverage, Brandon Aiyuk gets a boost in target share.
Dolphins 34, Jets 13: There’s uncertainty with De’Von Achane’s knee and Salvon Ahmed was placed on injured reserve with a foot injury last week. Jeff Wilson produced 73 total yards on 14 touches (including three receptions) at MetLife Stadium on Black Friday as the No. 2 tailback behind Raheem Mostert.
Falcons 24, Saints 15: Rashid Shaheed suffered a quad injury against Atlanta, Chris Olave left Week 12 with a concussion and Michael Thomas is on injured reserve. A.T. Perry will deserve flex consideration against the Lions, who are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, if either Shaheed or Olave are out.
Steelers 16, Bengals 10: If you lost Mark Andrews, a set-it-and-forget-it option at tight end, there’s likely no one with higher upside than Pat Freiermuth available in your league and now Matt Canada can’t hurt us anymore. Freiermuth was the overall TE3 in standard formats (TE1 in PPR) in Pittsburgh’s first game without Canada as offensive coordinator.
Titans 17, Panthers 10: DeAndre Hopkins played fewer than 60 percent of Tennessee’s offensive snaps for the first time since Week 4. Will Levis threw his second-fewest pass attempts in five games as a starter, so maybe the game plan played a role in Hopkins not playing as much. Game script won’t likely be a problem going forward, considering every remaining team on the Titans’ schedule has a winning record.
Colts 27, Buccaneers 20: Indianapolis is the top defense in fantasy since Week 9, averaging 17.7 points per game. The Colts face quarterbacks Will Levis, Jake Browning, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder and Aidan O’Connell the next five weeks.
Giants 10, Patriots 7: Jalin Hyatt ran the second-most routes for the G-Men and turned his career-high six targets into five receptions and 109 yards against New England, the first 100-yard game by any Giants pass catcher this season. The team should already be looking towards next season, which means there’s no excuse for the speedy rookie to not be the focal point of this pass offense the rest of the way.
Jaguars 24, Texans 21: If you weren’t satisfied with CJ Stroud’s fantasy production with his arm — you’re so hard to please — he’s started producing with his legs as well. Stroud led Houston with 47 rushing yards against Jacksonville and has a rushing TD in three of the last five games.
Broncos 29, Browns 12: Jerry Jeudy is the overall WR59 in standard formats (WR54 in PPR) through 12 weeks and only has 13 targets the last three games (compared to Courtland Sutton’s 22 targets).
Rams 37, Cardinals 12: Matthew Stafford’s 15th career game with at least four TD passes coincided with all of his weapons finally being healthy. He isn’t usable the next two weeks against the Browns and Ravens, but he faces the Commanders and Giants in the fantasy playoffs.
Chiefs 31, Raiders 17: Rashee Rice is the only wide receiver on Kansas City’s depth chart who deserves to be rostered in fantasy and his 107 yards on eight receptions and a TD in a come-from-behind victory over Las Vegas is indicative of how much Patrick Mahomes trusts him. The rookie has produced at least four receptions or a TD in nine of 11 games this season.
Eagles 37, Bills 34 (OT): The matchup of the two best quarterbacks in fantasy the first three months of the season didn’t disappoint. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts finished 1-2 in fantasy scoring for Week 12, with Allen producing 339 passing yards, 81 rushing yards and four total TDs and Hurts answering with 200 passing yards, 65 rushing yards and five total scores.
Ravens 20, Chargers 10: Keaton Mitchell has scored double-digit fantasy points (in PPR formats) in three of the last four games on limited touches, but his role has continued to grow every week — he played almost half of Baltimore’s offensive snaps against the Chargers. Both Mitchell and Gus Edwards have been top-20 options since Week 9. It wouldn’t surprise me if the dynamic undrafted rookie gets even more work after the Ravens’ Week 13 bye.
Bears 12, Vikings 10: Cole Kmet caught seven balls for 43 yards against Minnesota. It was the third time this season Kmet had at least seven receptions — he’s only done it twice before this year. Only Travis Kelce, TJ Hockenson and George Kittle have produced more fantasy points in PPR formats than Kmet since Week 4.
Feel free to hit me up @UTEddieBrown on X, formerly known as Twitter, with any specific lineup questions I don’t cover in my posts.
Here’s my best bets for Week 13:
SEATTLE AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: DK Metcalf (SEA), CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Dak Prescott (DAL), Tony Pollard (DAL), Cowboys D/ST.
Who to start: It’s a difficult matchup, but Tyler Lockett (SEA) is the overall WR23 in standard formats (WR17 in PPR) since Week 6. Brandin Cooks (DAL) is the overall WR11 in standard formats (WR19 in PPR) since Week 6 with a TD in four of the last six games.
Who to sit: Kenneth Walker (SEA) hasn’t practiced since suffering an oblique injury against the Rams. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) faces a defense allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Geno Smith (SEA) is the overall QB19 since Week 9. The Seahawks D/ST faces an offense allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. I’m fading Jake Ferguson (DAL) against a defense that has only allowed 13 receptions for 106 yards and no TDs to tight ends in the last three games. Michael Gallup (DAL) is averaging 2.8 targets in the last five games.
Sleeper: Zach Charbonnet (SEA) is a solid flex candidate — especially in PPR — despite the difficult matchup with at least four receptions in three straight games, plus he’s averaging 19.5 touches the last two weeks with Walker sidelined.
INDIANAPOLIS AT TENNESSEE
Obvious starters: Michael Pittman Jr. (IND), Derrick Henry (TEN).
Who to start: Zack Moss (IND) ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards (672) despite taking a backseat to Jonathan Taylor the last three games — Taylor had surgery on his thumb in Los Angeles on Wednesday, and will miss at least two-to-three weeks. Josh Downs (IND) has at least five receptions in five of his last seven games and faces a defense allowing the eight-most fantasy points to wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) faces a defense that has allowed 41 receptions for 546 yards and four TDs to wide receivers in the last four games.
Who to sit: Gardner Minshew (IND) is the overall QB24 since Week 8. Tyjae Spears (TEN) hasn’t had double-digit touches or scored a TD since Week 5. It’s hard to trust Treylon Burks (TEN) until we see him make it through a few games unscathed. Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) remains TD-dependent despite the positive matchup. Will Levis (TEN) has failed to throw a TD pass in three of the last four games.
Sleeper: The Colts D/ST has produced six interceptions and 15 sacks while allowing only 39 points in the last three games.
L.A. CHARGERS AT NEW ENGLAND
Obvious starters: Austin Ekeler (LAC), Justin Herbert (LAC), Rhamondre Stevenson (NE).
Who to start: Keenan Allen (LAC) is an obvious starter if he’s active, but is currently dealing with quadriceps injury and has been playing through an AC joint sprain in his shoulder. The Chargers D/ST faces an offense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, while suffering through terrible quarterback play for most of the season. Ezekiel Elliott (NE) has flex appeal in deeper standard leagues against a defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs — Elliott is averaging 10 touches per game this season. Hunter Henry (NE) faces his old team, who has allowed at least six receptions for 60 yards or a TD to tight ends in five of the last six games.
Who to sit: Quentin Johnston (LAC) remains TD-dependent with an average of only four targets per game since Week 9. Gerald Everett (LAC) faces a defense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Demario Douglas (NE) remains in the NFL’s concussion protocol. The Patriots D/ST faces an offense allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Even with a nice matchup, how do you trust JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) with only 13 targets in the last four games.
Sleeper: DeVante Parker (NE) is the only Patriots receiver who can take advantage of a defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season — assuming Douglas doesn’t play this weekend.
DETROIT AT NEW ORLEANS
Obvious starters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), Sam LaPorta (DET), David Montgomery (DET), Alvin Kamara (NO).
Who to start: Chris Olave (NO) is an obvious starter if he clears the NFL’s concussion protocol. Taysom Hill (NO) is the overall TE2 in standard formats (TE6 in PPR) since Week 6, and could be relied upon even more with the Saints’ receivers dealing with various injuries. The Saints D/ST always has upside at home, but especially against an offense that has committed seven turnovers in its last two games.
Who to sit: Jared Goff (DET) has only scored six of his 20 total TDs on the road this season, and he’s only played one more game at home. Jameson Williams (DET) has yet to surpass two receptions in game this season. Josh Reynolds (DET) remains TD-dependent with only 17 targets in the last six games. The Lions D/ST are 31st in fantasy points since Week 10 — only the Chargers have fewer. Derek Carr (NO) has surpassed 300 yards five times this season, but has only thrown four multiple TDs once in those games. Rashid Shaheed (NO) remains a boom-or-bust candidate when he’s active, with fewer than 35 yards in six of the last eight games. Jamaal Williams (NO) remains TD-dependent against his former team, which is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Sleeper: Juwan Johnson (NO) saw a season-high seven targets against the Falcons last week, and that bump could carry over if Olave and/or Shaheed are out or limited.
ATLANTA AT N.Y. JETS
Obvious starters: Bijan Robinson (ATL), Garrett Wilson (NYJ), Jets D/ST.
Who to start: Tyler Allgeier (ATL) maintains flex appeal in deeper standard leagues against a defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Breece Hall (NYJ) is an obvious starter if he’s active (monitor his hamstring injury). Tyler Conklin (NYJ) deserves streaming consideration against a defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, including 26 receptions for 332 yards in the last three games.
Who to sit: I’m fading Drake London (ATL) against a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Kyle Pitts (ATL) is the overall TE23 in standard formats (TE19 in PPR) since Week 7. Jonnu Smith (ATL) is TD-dependent after not registering a target against the Saints last week. Desmond Ridder (ATL) only has value in formats that utilize multiple quarterbacks in a starting lineup.
Sleeper: The Falcons D/ST is a premium streaming option against an offense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
ARIZONA AT PITTSBURGH
Obvious starters: Marquise Brown (ARI), Najee Harris (PIT), Steelers D/ST.
Who to start: James Conner (ARI) maintains flex appeal against his former team with double-digit touches in seven of the eight games he’s played in this season. Trey McBride (ARI) is an obvious starter if he’s active (monitor his groin injury). Diontae Johnson (PIT) maintains WR3/flex upside with at least eight targets in four of the last five games. Jaylen Warren (PIT) faces a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including seven TDs in the last five games. Pat Freiermuth (PIT) faces a defense that has allowed at least one TD to tight ends in four of the last five games.
Who to sit: I’m fading Kyler Murray (ARI) on the road against a good defense that knows how to handle mobile quarterbacks. Rondale Moore (ARI) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with two-or-fewer receptions in five of the last six games. George Pickens (PIT) is TD-dependent as the overall WR51 in standard formats (WR52 in PPR) since Week 8. Kenny Pickett (PIT) only has value in superflex formats despite the positive matchup.
Sleeper: Greg Dortch (ARI) has received at least eight targets in back-to-back games.
MIAMI AT WASHINGTON
Obvious starters: Tyreek Hill (MIA), Jaylen Waddle (MIA), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Raheem Mostert (MIA), Terry McLaurin (WAS), Sam Howell (WAS).
Who to start: There’s obviously risk, but De’Von Achane (MIA) should be in your lineup if he’s active unless you have a definitively better option. Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) maintains RB2 upside with an average of 15 touches per game. Jahan Dotson (WAS) is the overall WR17 in standard formats (WR22 in PPR) since Week 8. Logan Thomas (WAS) deserves streaming consideration as the overall TE15 in standard formats (TE12 in PPR) since Week 4.
Who to sit: Curtis Samuel (WAS) and Antonio Gibson (WAS) only deserve flex consideration in deeper PPR formats.
Sleeper: The Dolphins D/ST is a premium streaming option against an offense allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
DENVER AT HOUSTON
Obvious starters: Javonte Williams (DEN), Courtland Sutton (DEN), CJ Stroud (HOU), Tank Dell (HOU), Nico Collins (HOU).
Who to start: Dalton Schultz (HOU) hasn’t practiced as of Thursday with a hamstring injury, but he faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends — if Schultz is out, Brevin Jordan (HOU) would be a premium streaming option at the position. Devin Singletary (HOU) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to running backs.
Who to sit: Jerry Jeudy (DEN) remains TD-dependent with only 10 receptions for 104 yards on 13 targets in the last three games. Samaje Perine (DEN) and Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) only have value in the deepest PPR leagues. I’m fading the Broncos D/ST on the road against an offense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses. Dameon Pierce (HOU) remains TD-dependent with only six touches against the Jaguars last week in his return from injury. Robert Woods (HOU) has exactly three targets in three of his last four games. I’m fading Noah Brown (HOU) until we see he’s healthy.
Sleeper: Russell Wilson (DEN) faces a defense that has allowed at least 329 passing yards in four of the last seven games.
CAROLINA AT TAMPA BAY
Obvious starters: Adam Thielen (CAR), Mike Evans (TB), Rachaad White (TB).
Who to start: Cade Otton (TB) is the overall TE11 in standard and PPR formats since Week 7. The Buccaneers D/ST deserve streaming consideration against an offense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Who to sit: I’m fading Chuba Hubbard (CAR) and Miles Sanders (CAR) against a defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Despite the matchup, DJ Chark Jr. (CAR) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with only 11 targets in his last four games. Bryce Young (CAR) only has value in superflex formats. I’m fading Chris Godwin (TB) against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Baker Mayfield (TB) faces a defense that has allowed only three TD passes in five games since its bye week.
Sleeper: Jonathan Mingo (CAR) has at least six targets in three straight games and faces a defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
CLEVELAND AT L.A. RAMS
Obvious starters: David Njoku (CLE), Browns D/ST, Kyren Williams (LAR).
Who to start: Jerome Ford (CLE) is the overall RB20 in standard formats (RB18 in PPR) since Week 2. Puka Nacua (LAR) maintains WR3/flex upside despite the matchup, with at least seven targets in every game this season.
Who to sit: I’m fading Amari Cooper (CLE) and Elijah Moore (CLE) with the current QB situation for the Browns. I’m also fading Kareem Hunt (CLE) against a defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Cooper Kupp (LAR) is the overall WR91 in standard formats (WR81 in PPR) since Week 7. Matthew Stafford (LAR) faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Tyler Higbee (LAR) faces a defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Tutu Atwell (LAR) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with only 14 receptions in the last seven games.
Sleeper: The Rams D/ST deserves streaming consideration against an offense who might have Joe Flacco under center this week — Flacco would be the fourth different QB to start for the Browns this season.
SAN FRANCISCO AT PHILADELPHIA
Obvious starters: Christian McCaffrey (SF), George Kittle (SF), Brandon Aiyuk (SF), Jalen Hurts (PHI), AJ Brown (PHI), DeVonta Smith (PHI).
Who to start: Brock Purdy (SF) faces a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Deebo Samuel (SF) faces a defense allowing the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Only the Cowboys’ defense has scored more fantasy points than the 49ers D/ST since Week 10.
Who to sit: I’m fading D’Andre Swift (PHI) against a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Dallas Goedert (PHI) has yet to practice since breaking his right forearm Week 9, and I wouldn’t trust him if he rushes back for this matchup. The Eagles D/ST faces an offense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Sleeper: Jauan Jennings (SF) faces a defense that has allowed 17 TDs to wide receivers in 11 games this season.
KANSAS CITY AT GREEN BAY
Obvious starters: Travis Kelce (KC), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Isiah Pacheco (KC).
Who to start: Rashee Rice (KC) deserves flex consideration as the overall WR37 in standard formats (WR35 in PPR) through 12 weeks. Only Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud have scored more fantasy points than Jordan Love (GB) since Week 10. Jayden Reed (GB) has at least four receptions or a TD in five of the last six games. Romeo Doubs (GB) has flex appeal as the overall WR31 in standard formats (WR36 in PPR) through 12 weeks.
Who to sit: I’m fading the Chiefs D/ST on the road against an offense that has only committed two turnovers and allowed four sacks in the last three games. Rice is the only Chiefs wide receiver who is relevant in fantasy and deserves your consideration. Aaron Jones (GB) will likely miss another game with an MCL sprain. Christian Watson (GB) remains a boom-or-bust candidate with three-or-fewer receptions in seven of the last eight games. Tucker Kraft (GB) faces a defense allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Sleeper: AJ Dillon (GB) faces a defense that has allowed a TD to running backs in four of the last five games.
CINCINNATI AT JACKSONVILLE
Obvious starters: Ja’Marr Chase (CIN), Joe Mixon (CIN), Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC), Evan Engram (JAC).
Who to start: Calvin Ridley (JAC) is the overall WR13 in standard formats (WR12 in PPR) since Week 8. Christian Kirk (JAC) has at least six receptions or a TD in seven of the last 10 games. Only Josh Allen has scored more fantasy points than Trevor Lawrence (JAC) the last two weeks.
Who to sit: It’s hard to imagine a Jake Browning-led offense supporting more than Chase and Mixon, so I can’t advocate for Tee Higgins (CIN) or Tyler Boyd (CIN) going forward. I’m fading the Bengals D/ST on the road against Lawrence. Zay Jones (JAC) is a boom-or-bust candidate with only seven targets in the last two games after returning from injury.
Sleeper: The Jaguars D/ST is averaging 10 fantasy points per game in its last four home games, and that includes scoring a single point against the 49ers in Week 10.
