Buckle up for a busy Thanksgiving weekend.
A record number of travelers is expected to jam the roads in Southern California in the coming days. Fortunately, gasoline prices continue to drop.
After surging to $6.248 at the end of September, the average price for a gallon of regular in the San Diego area on Monday stood at $5.112, according to AAA. That’s the lowest since Aug. 3.
“Prices are continuing to recover,” said Marie Montgomery, spokeswoman for the Auto Club of Southern California.
AAA anticipates 3.9 million travelers to take to the highways across the greater San Diego and Los Angeles region. When airplanes, buses, trains and cruises are added to the mix, a predicted 4.6 million will take trips between Wednesday and Sunday.
That’s a 3 percent increase from last year’s all-time high and 3.5 percent more than 2019’s pre-pandemic numbers.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the drop in gasoline prices is due to a combination of factors.
Drivers don’t travel as much in the fall as they do in the summer when many take road trips and go on vacation so gasoline demand eases.
Plus, after prices shot up in August and September, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sept. 28 instructed California regulators to speed up the delivery of less expensive winter-blended gas to stations across the state.
Winter-blended gas is about 20 to 25 cents per gallon cheaper than summer-blended gas and when the California Air Resources Board put the waiver in place, prices began to decline almost immediately.
“It’s a profound impact when you issue a waiver that has such broad implications,” De Haan said. “It’s also a sign that regulatory pressure is part of the reason why California’s price is higher. As soon as you waive some of those regulations, the wholesale market collapses on itself because it greatly changes the supply and demand balance.”
The price of Brent crude — the international benchmark in the futures market — has dropped from a little more than $94 a barrel on Sept. 27 to around $82 a barrel on Monday. That’s a drop of 13 percent.
The international price of oil is important for California gasoline prices because the Golden State relies on overseas fuels. In 2022, 59 percent of oil supply sources to the state’s refineries came from foreign imports, according to the California Energy Commission.
Will prices keep falling?
Energy and fuel analysts will be closely watching what happens Sunday, when officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its oil-producing allies such as Russia meet in Vienna. The ministers of what is called OPEC+ may decide to reduce production to try to boost the price of crude.
But De Haan is guardedly optimistic that gas prices in California will continue to drop.
“My expectation is that (OPEC+) will probably make a small cut with a small impact on the market,” he said. “Oil prices might rally back up but I think California would still have another 15- to 30-cent decline coming.”
Last Thanksgiving, California drivers experienced a similar situation, when gas prices shot up in late summer and then came back down in the fall. On Turkey Day 2022, the average price for regular in San Diego came to $5.145 — some 3 cents higher than Monday’s posted price by AAA.
Over this past weekend, the statewide average price dropped below $5 a gallon.
Gas prices have dropped nationally as well. The average price in the U.S. stood at $3.308 Monday — 25 cents lower than one month ago. AAA anticipates 49 million Americans will travel by personal vehicle over the Thanksgiving weekend.
Within Southern California, Las Vegas and San Diego will be the top two destinations for Thanksgiving weekend travel. All outbound freeways are likely to be congested on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.
“If you can leave early in the morning, you’ll be better off,” said Montgomery of AAA. “Traffic will be heaviest Tuesday and Sunday.”
The Auto Club recommends making sure the maintenance on your car or truck is up-to-date and your tires and batteries are in good condition. AAA expects to respond to 90,000 calls from drivers in California in need of help over the Thanksgiving weekend.
