The race to replace Nora Vargas on the county Board of Supervisors is shaping up at warp speed.
But while some familiar dynamics are emerging, much remains unsettled.
For one thing, the remaining four supervisors have not yet called a special election to fill the vacancy in South Bay’s District 1, though that is expected soon. The board has the option to appoint a replacement but virtually no one thinks that will happen, given the even partisan split on the board.
Once again, the county faces an election where the partisan control of the board is at stake.
Then-board chair Vargas, a Democrat, jolted her constituents and stunned San Diego’s political world on Dec. 20 when she announced she would not serve a second term even though she had been elected to one in a landslide just weeks earlier.
Vargas so far has not given an explanation for her decision beyond general concerns for “personal safety and security reasons.”
A field of four candidates quickly emerged to fill her seat, as did speculation about how major players among organized labor, the development community and business organizations will line up.
The race has the potential for a business-labor faceoff, but perhaps not so traditionally absolute as in the November re-election of labor-backed Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer over former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who had support from developers and other business interests.
The District 1 field so far: Imperial Beach Mayor Paloma Aguirre, Chula Vista City Councilmember Carolina Chavez, Chula Vista Mayor John McCann and San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno.
The district is heavily Democratic and Hispanic, which ultimately bodes well for one of the three Latina Democrats. With their potential to split the vote in a low-turnout special election, conventional wisdom suggests prospects are good for McCann, a White Republican, to advance out of the primary to a runoff. A candidate can win outright in the primary by gaining a majority of votes, but that’s highly unlikely in this case.
McCann is a favorite among developers and business groups — but so is Moreno. She has been a consistent pro-housing, pro-development vote on the council and was backed for re-election by the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce.
Where it gets interesting is how the Building Industry Association of San Diego County and the Lincoln Club, a business group, will weigh in. Executive directors of both organizations said their groups will make a decision after interviewing candidates.
But whether McCann can ultimately win the election may be a factor in those choices, given Moreno’s competing record. David Malcolm, long an influential figure in the Lincoln Club and South Bay politics, thinks it will be.
“I think Vivian has done a really good job and deserves business support,” said Malcolm, co-chair of the Lincoln Club’s political action committee, which regularly backs Republicans. “Some of us are tired of losing. I think we need to look at reality.”
The Lincoln Club was heavily behind Faulconer, who lost big, and Bart Miesfeld, who was easily defeated for Chula Vista city attorney by Marco Verdugo in March. Famously, or infamously, the Lincoln Club spent most of $1.4 million from an obscure Point Loma attorney in vain behind Larry Turner, the San Diego police officer who suffered a double-digit loss in November to San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria.
McCann, a longtime Chula Vista City Council member, was elected mayor by about 4 percentage points in 2022 against a candidate, Ammar Campa-Najjar, who had considerable baggage — there was a question about whether he actually lived in the city — but lots of money to spend.
It’s clear McCann attracted some crossover Democratic votes, and a low-turnout special election would work to his advantage.
Aguirre is widely seen as the most progressive candidate in the race and has the prospect of attracting considerable labor support. As with developers and business, however, there’s the potential for some kind of split because Moreno largely has been good on various labor issues and has had a close relationship with the San Diego Municipal Employees Association, the city’s white-collar labor union.
SEIU Local 221, which represents thousands of county workers, may be gravitating to Aguirre. The same may be the case for United Domestic Workers Local 3930, which represents home care and family child care providers.
SEIU in particular has been influential in county politics and hasn’t backed a losing supervisorial candidate in a decade. The union has a good relationship with Aguirre, in part because SEIU represents Imperial Beach city workers.
SEIU has a smaller footprint in the San Diego municipal government, though the union does represent employees at the Housing Commission. But it hasn’t had as much interaction with Moreno.
A key barometer also will be who the Labor Council of San Diego and Imperial Counties supports in the primary, if anyone. Further, all eyes also will be on the local Democratic Party, which endorses candidates only if they get 60 percent support from the party’s central committee.
Imperial Beach is only a small portion of the county’s District 1, but Aguirre has become a regional figure with her aggressive pursuit of solutions to the decades-long problem of sewage pollution spilling across the border from Mexico, forcing constant closures of beaches in her city.
Aguirre has worked with the local congressional delegation, White House officials and local mayors across the political spectrum on this. They all cheered the recent congressional approval of another $250 million to fix the international border sewage plant.
Dan Rottenstreich, Aguirre’s political consultant, said Aguirre is leading on an issue of importance to voters that gives them a sense of who she is and how she operates. While collaborative, Aguirre has criticized Gov. Gavin Newsom and Vargas — members of her own party — for not pushing harder on the sewage problem.
“How do you stand out on an issue that resonates with voters?” Rottenstreich said. “She’s got that in spades with the Tijuana River sewage crisis.”
Democratic Assemblymember David Alvarez, who represents the South Bay, contemplated running, but said he decided against it, saying there was more he wanted to accomplish in Sacramento.
He said he has a good working relationship with all four candidates, though is more familiar with Moreno, who worked on Alvarez’s City Council staff, and Chavez, who worked on one of his campaigns.
He said he will decide whether to back one of the candidates after talking with them. Alvarez cautioned about making assumptions about the race, who may seem favored or not. He noted he had been an underdog in past elections.
But he said the advantage could go to candidates who adapt to what will be a short timeline of the election. The leg up could go to “Who can best organize quickly,” he said.
The race for county supervisor has barely started and unknowns abound. Does Chavez have a shot at slipping through? Does she take votes from Aguirre or Moreno. Does that help McCann, or does she take Chula Vista voters from him? Do other candidates get in? And where do law enforcement groups end up?
One thing seems certain. This election will create another vacancy somewhere, and another familiar round of political dominoes.
What they said
Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan), CEO of Zeteo, a new media company.
“I see everyone on Twitter overnight has become an expert on fire hydrants and the history of California water management practices.”
