Minors: Starting pitchers to watch in the Padres’ farm system

The Padres didn’t just watch the reigning NL Cy Young winner walk out the door. They watched four pitchers who contributed innings to the rotation file for free agency.

While they are certain to sign a guy or two and let Ruben Niebla do his thing, the organization is in dire need of homegrown help and the system is poised to turn out interesting starting pitching prospects in the coming years, with perhaps a guy or two showing up in the second half of 2024.

1 | LHP Robby Snelling

Opening day age: 20
How acquired: 2^nd round in 2022 (McQueen HS, Nev.)
Height / Weight: 6-foot-3 / 210 pounds
Bats / Throws: Right / Left
2023 team(s): Lake Elsinore (A), Fort Wayne (A+), San Antonio (AA)
2023 stats: 11-3, 1.82 ERA, 118 strikeouts, 34 walks, 1.12 WHIP, .216 opponent avg., 103 2/3 IP (22)
Need to know: Baseball America’s minor league pitcher of the year, Snelling was in contention for the Padres’ first-round pick in 2022. They ultimately used that pick on Dylan Lesko and then signed Snelling in the ensuing compensation for $3 million, $1 million over slot, to keep him away from his commitment to LSU. His pro debut was held off until this year and he shot through Lake Elsinore and Fort Wayne to finish the year in San Antonio’s playoff rotation. A blue-chip recruit as a linebacker, Snelling leaned up as he entered pro ball to help streamline his mechanics. He sits 95-96 mph with ride and a spike-grip curve, one of the better high school breaking balls in his class, ranges from the mid-70s to the low-80s. The change-up and slider are developing pitches, while his makeup is off the charts. After a dominant 2023 season, Snelling could be in big-league spring training in February and on the big-league radar before long.

2 | RHP Dylan Lesko

Opening day age: 20
How acquired: 1^st round in 2022 (Buford HS, Ga.)
Height / Weight: 6-foot-2 / 195 pounds
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
2023 team(s): ACL Padres (R), Lake Elsinore (A), Fort Wayne (A+)
2023 stats: 1-5, 5.45 ERA, 52 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.55 WHIP, .242 opponent avg., 33 IP (12)
Need to know: The Gatorade National Player of the Year as a junior, Lesko looked like he was headed toward a top-five selection when Tommy John surgery ended his senior season months ahead of the draft. The Padres didn’t hesitate using the 15^th overall pick on him, signed him for $3.9 million and finally unveiled Lesko in June in the Arizona Complex League. He quickly moved to Lake Elsinore and ended his season at Fort Wayne, where he struck out nine over five shutout innings in his second-to-last start of the season. The command fluctuated as it does with most Tommy John rehabbers, but he still boasts a 98 mph four-seamer with carry at the top of the zone and a “Bugs Bunny” fading change-up that was one of the best pitches in his draft class. There’s also power to a 12-to-6 curve, though that pitch needs refinement as Lesko did not need that much as an amateur. Lesko threw just 33 innings coming off Tommy John surgery, so the Padres will be deliberate with his build-back.

Padres pitching prospect Jairo Iriarte began 2023 at high Single-A Fort Wayne.

3 | RHP Jairo Iriarte

Opening day age: 22
How acquired: International amateur in July 2018 (Venezuela)
Height / Weight: 6-foot-2 / 210 pounds
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
2023 team(s): Fort Wayne (A+), San Antonio (AA)
2023 stats: 3-4, 3.49 ERA, 128 strikeouts, 45 walks, 1.28 WHIP, .216 opponent avg., 90 1/3 IP (27 games, 21 starts)
Need to know: He’s added some 50 pounds since signing as a 16-year-old for $75,000, increasing the likelihood that he can mature into a starting pitching prospect. He’ll have to throw more strikes to do that, but he made strides in that department in forcing the Padres to add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. His fastball sits 95-97 mph and a mid-80s slider produces silly swing-and-miss. A change-up has late fading action and could also become a plus pitch. Iriarte was in the zone more in Fort Wayne (3.10 ERA) than he was in San Antonio (4.30 ERA), where he pitched some in relief to help manage his workload. The Padres, though, don’t have any plans to move him out of the rotation as they need arms and the upside of his could be as electric as they have in the system.

Padres pitching prospect Adam Mazur finished 2023 at Double-A San Antonio.

4 | RHP Adam Mazur

Opening day age: 22
How acquired: 2nd round in 2022 (Iowa)
Height / Weight: 6-foot-2 / 180 pounds
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
2023 team(s): Fort Wayne (A+), San Antonio (AA)
2023 stats: 6-4, 2.81 ERA, 90 strikeouts, 17 walks, 1.19 WHIP, .258 opponent avg., 96 IP (24 games, 18 starts)
Need to know: Mazur pitched a ton his senior year at Iowa as the Big Ten Conference pitcher of the year, so his pro debut was pushed off until 2023. The Padres started Mazur at High Single-A Fort Wayne and he finished the year in San Antonio’s postseason rotation, although he did have a spell in the bullpen to manage his workload. Mazur’s fastball sits 92-96 mph and a tight slider has been up to 90 mph. He also has a mid-80s change-up with two-seam action and arm-side life and a 12-to-6 curveball. Even better, his command grades out as double-plus. The only question is if he’ll be able to withstand a starter’s workload or fall into a bullpen role.

Padres pitching prospect Ryan Bergert began 2023 at high Single-A Fort Wayne.

5 | RHP Ryan Bergert

Opening day age: 24
How acquired: 6^th round in 2021 (West Virginia)
Height / Weight: 6-foot-1 / 210 pounds
Bats / Throws: Right / Right
2023 team(s): Fort Wayne (A+), San Antonio (AA)
2023 stats: 6-4, 2.73 ERA, 126 strikeouts, 46 walks, 1.16 WHIP, .204 opponent avg., 105 2/3 IP (23 games, 20 starts)
Need to know: Tommy John surgery wiped out Bergert’s junior season at West Viriginia, but he’s been trending up ever since, reaching the Texas League in his second full season. He is a sum-of-the-parts pitcher with a classic mix, although he’s pocketed his curveball in favor of a developing sweeper. An east-to-west fastball sits 93 mph and has been up to 98-98 mph, and the change-up and slider both flash above-average. The overall package and consistency have improved the further he’s gotten away from his elbow reconstruction, which is evident in his home run rate dropping from 1.57 per nine innings in 2022 to 0.34 this year.

Others to know: RHP Matt Waldron (AAA), LHP Jay Groome (AAA), RHP Braden Nett (AA), RHP Garrett Hawkins (AA), LHP Austin Krob (AA), RHP Jared Kollar (AA), RHP Victor Lizarraga (A+), LHP Jagger Haynes (A), RHP Isaiah Lowe (A), LHP Blake Dickerson (R), RHP Kannon Kemp (R).