There is no way to remedy the Padres’ dearth of starting pitching for 2024 other than by bringing in help from the outside.
The Padres have as many as six or seven pitchers expected to begin the upcoming season in the minor leagues who could start games for them in the majors by the end of the summer. That includes a few — Robby Snelling, Jairo Iriarte and Adam Mazur — that are considered key pieces of future rotations.
But the idea that one of them will step up during spring training to help fill out a rotation that currently has just two bona fide starters in Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove just is not realistic.
“Going into the year and like counting on that or starting the year with that, I think that’s something we’re expecting some development time and the ability for those guys to kind of earn their way up to the big league level,” Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller said. “But I think it’s going to be something we get to the end of the year. I have confidence in our system and those players, particularly, that they’re going to take some jumps and be part of our season next year at the big-league level.”
So trade discussions and free-agent pursuits are ongoing for the Padres, in the day that remains in the winter meetings here and then for as long as it takes leading up to this crucial season, the success of which could well determine Preller’s ongoing employment.
But that does not make what is just beyond the horizon of ‘24 any less important to the franchise.
What is coming, in fact, is seen as crucial.
It was among the most important factors in the late Peter Seidler’s staunch support of Preller, which was expressed in his final public interview over the summer and in his September decree that Preller would remain in charge.
Beyond his virtually impenetrable optimism regarding the Padres’ major league roster, Seidler’s belief in Preller (and his staff) was grounded in the assessment the Padres are set up to be more self-sustaining in the coming years.
A smaller payroll than what the franchise invested each of the past two seasons has been the plan for a while. And while the likely paring of Juan Soto’s salary via a trade dominates the present narrative, the Padres think their path to savings over the long-term winds through Fort Wayne and San Antonio and El Paso.
“The next step now that we have our core — and I think we’ve upgraded in player development as well — I believe we’ll have more homegrown talent,” Seidler said in July. “In (2025) is when I think we’re going to really get a wave. … We’re set up well.”
The Padres envision a scenario in which their top three prospects — catcher Ethan Salas, shortstop Jackson Merrill and Snelling — make the opening-day roster in ‘25, along with a handful of other minor leaguers. Salas, Merrill and Snelling are expected to be in big-league camp this spring.
Merrill, Snelling, starting pitchers Jairo Iriarte (No.6) and Adam Mazur (No.7) and outfielder Jakob Marsee (No.12) are among the minor leaguers who could make their MLB debuts in ‘24. There are also a number of other relievers (Kevin Kopps, Cole Paplham and Sean Reynolds) or even starters (Ryan Bergert, Jay Groome and Jared Kollar) who could get turns at some point in ‘24. Matt Waldron and/or Pedro Avila, who both made starts for the Padres in 2023, could begin the season at Triple-A or be in the rotation or bullpen.
“I think when we get to the end of the year, I think my guess is there’s gonna be some prospects and players that made those jumps and played well for us and we gave some opportunity to and they responded,” Preller said this week. “I think if we’re going to play in the postseason and be a good club, we’re probably going to have a few players there. There are going to be some guys that are going to step up in that area.”
