With the World Series over, A.J. Preller, the Padres’ embattled president of baseball operations, can begin to attack a jam-packed offseason.
His manager left town to oversee a far-less-appealing roster in San Francisco. His top starting pitcher (Blake Snell) and reliever (Josh Hader) are both free agents and there are a trio of arms with options to address. Juan Soto is a year closer to leaving if the Padres can’t work out an extension and Preller has been charged with cutting payroll to some $200 million while getting an underachieving team back on track as a demanding fan base looks on.
After all, you didn’t have to listen all that closely to hear jeering late in the season as the once “rockstar” general manager was introduced for various on-field presentations. His on-field product was also booed throughout what was easily the most disappointing season in franchise history.
How will Preller attempt to fix it for 2024?
We’re about to find out.
A matter of record
2023 finish: 82-80 (3rd in NL West)
What’s next …
- Preller should move quickly in finalizing the hire of the fourth full-time manager of his tenure. Teams competing for candidates include the Mets, Angels, Astros, Guardians and the Brewers. The coaching staff will also need to be filled out as third base coach Matt Williams and associate manager Ryan Christenson will likely join Bob Melvin in San Francisco. The Padres have so far interviewed bench coach Ryan Flaherty, pitching coach Ruben Niebla and senior adviser Mike Shildt as well as one outside candidate, Angels coach and Castle Park High grad Benji Gil.
- The Padres enter the offseason needing to pare some $50 million off last year’s payroll while addressing holes created by their top pitcher and reliever hitting free agency. Soto is in the last year of team control and will likely earn north of $30 million if he and the club don’t reach an extension, which is unlikely as uber-agent Scott Boras typically takes his clients to the open market. The Padres could explore moving Soto to either address big-league needs and/or add to a top-10 farm system. A trade would also allow the Padres to spread Soto’s salary over a handful of positions that require attention.
- The most glaring of the needs is the rotation. Snell hits free agency, Seth Lugo is likely to decline his player option and Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez could hit the open market depending on the team/player options exercised. That could leave three holes behind Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, both of whom are coming off injury-riddled seasons.
Padres starter Michael Wacha throws against the Orioles on Aug. 15.
(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Decisions, decisions …
A look at the options that will have to be exercised or declined early this offseason:
- RHP Michael Wacha (3.22 ERA, 134 1/3 IP) was a revelation for $7.5 million in 2023 and will earn $32 million over the next two years if the Padres pick up his option. It’s a certainty that Wacha will decline the $6.5 million player option that he holds if the Padres decline their team option. Wacha would also hold $6 million player options for 2025 and 2026 if the 2024-2025 team option is not picked up.
- Likewise, RHP Seth Lugo (3.57 ERA, 146 1/3 IP) also outperformed his $7.5 million deal and is likely to opt out of his $7.5 million plalyer option.
- RHP Nick Martinez made $10 million in 2023 (3.43 ERA, 110 1/3 IP). The Padres aren’t likely to pick up his two-year, $32 million team option, leaving Martinez $8 million player options for both 2024 and 2025.
- INF Matt Carpenter has a $5.5 million player option that he’ll surely exercise. He hit .176/.322/.319 over 237 plate appearances last year.
Padres pitcher Blake Snell throws against the Los Angeles Angels at Petco Park on Monday, July 3, 2023.
(K.C. Alfred/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Outgoing free agents
- LHP Blake Snell could earn a second Cy Young award shortly after filing for free agency. He earned $16 million in 2023 in the final year of the team-friendly deal signed while with the Rays and will likely earn the biggest payday for a starting pitcher this offseason. Last year’s top available pitchers got paid in free agency: RHP Jacob deGrom signed a five-year, $185 million deal with the Rangers and LHP Carlos Rodon signed a six year, $162 million deal with the Yankees.
- LHP Josh Hader made $14.1 million in 2023 in his last year of team control and hits free agency as the top available closer. Last year, that designation earned RHP Edwin Diaz a five-year, $102 million deal with the Mets.
Eligible for salary arbitration
Players are eligible for arbitration after reaching three years of service time. Players become free agents once this reach six years. MLBTradeRumors.com’s estimates are in parentheses:
- 5-plus years: LF Juan Soto ($33M), RHP Scott Barlow ($7.1M), LHP Tim Hill ($2.4M).
- 4-plus years: CF Trent Grisham ($4.9M), C Austin Nola ($2.35M).
- 3-plus years: LHP Adrián Morejón ($900K).
The Padres’ Xander Bogaerts, left, celebrates with teammate Manny Machado after hitting a home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in San Diego.
(Gregory Bull / Associated Press)
Financial commitments
A look at the guaranteed contracts on the books over the next three seasons:
- 2024 ($128.5 million): SS Xander Bogaerts will make $25 million annually through the end of a pact that will run through 2033. 3B Manny Machado’s salary schedule will drop him down to $13 million in both 2024 and 2025. RHP Joe Musgrove’s $20 million salary will be the second highest on the team next year, while RF Fernando Tatis Jr.’s salary jumps from $7 million in 2023 to $11 million. RHP Yu Darvish will make $16 million, RHP Robert Suarez will make $11 million, 2B Ha-Seong Kim will make $8 million in the final guaranteed year in his deal and 2B Jake Cronenworth’s salary jumps to $7 million. The Padres also owe INF Matt Carpenter $5.5 million when he exercises his player option and are on the hook for $13 million for the second to last year of Eric Hosmer’s deal.
- 2025 ($135M): After Bogaerts ($25M), Darvish is the second-highest-paid player this year as his salary jumps to $21 million. Tatis and Musgrove will both make $20 million, followed by Machado ($13M), Cronenworth ($11M) and Suarez ($10M). Hosmer’s contract ($13M) comes off the books after this year, while the Padres will owe Kim a $2 million buyout if his $8 million mutual option isn’t exercised.
- 2026 ($122M): After Bogaerts ($25M), Machado will be the second-highest-paid Padre as his salary jumps to $21 million. Tatis will again make $20 million, as will Musgrove. Darvish’s salary drops down to $16 million, followed by Cronenworth ($12M) and Suarez ($8M) if the Padres reliever does not opt out after 2025.
Notables eligible for the Rule 5 draft
High school players signed in 2019 and college players signed in 2020 are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time. Players signed before these years who are not on the 40-man roster are already eligible. The Padres have four notable players eligible for the draft:
- Triple-A: SS José Sanabria.
- Single-A: OF Joshua Mears, LHP Bodi Rascon, C Jared Alvarez-Lopez.
Key dates
- Thursday: Eligible players became free agents.
- Tuesday-Nov. 9: General Manager Meetings in Scottsdale, Ariz.
- Monday: Free agency begins; final day to tender qualifying offers to free agents.
- Nov. 14: Last day for players to accept qualifying offers.
- Nov. 17: Last day for teams to offer 2024 contracts to unsigned players on 40-man rosters.
- Dec. 3-6: Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tenn. (Draft lottery on Dec. 5; Rul6e 5 draft on Dec. 6).
- Jan. 12: Salary arbitration figures exchanged.
- Jan. 15: International signing period opens.
- Jan. 29-Feb. 16: Salary arbitration hearings.
- Feb. 22: Cactus League play begins vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Peoria, Ariz.
- March 20, 21: Korea Series vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seoul.
- March 28: MLB Opening Day vs. San Francisco Giants at Petco Park.
