The baseball offseason plays out in shades of truth, and semantics and things that are said that sound like something more than they are.
Circumstances change. Everyone has an agenda.
It is a slew of simultaneous poker games with gigantic pots at stake.
So it was Wednesday that the game’s most powerful agent spoke on the topic of the Padres’ top offensive performer. And it sounded sort of like Scott Boras said the Padres were not going to trade Juan Soto.
“They laid out their plan for next year, which obviously included a lineup that definitely included Juan Soto,” Boras said of a meeting his agency had with the Padres’ brass on Tuesday. “He’s their one .900-OPS player. They’re obviously looking for more left-handed bats rather than less.”
This all lines up with reality, and yet it by no means connotes that Soto is certain to be with the Padres in 2024. He is in line to become the highest-paid player on a team that is trying to trim payroll while adding three or four starting pitchers.
“They’re telling us that they’re trying to win and they’re going to be very aggressive in the free-agent market,” Boras said.
The Padres will almost certainly be active in free agency. They need multiple starting pitchers, a couple relievers, an outfielder or two and a backup catcher.
They could keep Soto. They do have ideas that involve his being on their team. No one disputes they are better with Soto in the lineup.
“You need super-talented players and a lot of them to win championships,” Preller said. “So I think from our standpoint, that good part with our roster is we’ve got a number of those guys. … You need elite players. It’s never easy to trade for or move an elite, talented guy, because that’s what the best teams have when they win championships.”
Further, there is an expectation Soto is poised to put up huge numbers in his final season before free agency.
“A contract year with an elite player is attractive,” Preller said. “But we’ll weigh that out versus what it means long term.”
The Padres are entertaining trade conversations regarding Soto as well, in part because he is due more than $30 million in his final year of arbitration and multiple sources have said the Padres will cut payroll by as much as $50 to $60 million.
One way to fit Soto into this year’s payroll would be to sign him to a long-term deal that features less money up front. This does not line up with what Boras clients generally agree to, though Boras noted he works for his clients and not the other way around.
Preller did not explicitly say that keeping the 25-year-old Soto was contingent on the ability to lock up the player who leads the major leagues in on-base percentage (.421) and ranks fourth in OPS (.946) since he entered the league in 2018. But he did mention such a deal prominently and repeatedly.
“We’ll have conversations with Scott and his group and continue those conversations on where Juan is at long term and then evaluate where it leaves us for the rest of this offseason and into next year,” Preller said. “… I think we will continue those conversations and you always weigh everything out. You’re constantly looking at what that means for our current team. Obviously with Juan, it means a lot. He’s one of the most dynamic offensive forces in the game. But you always weigh out the here and now versus the long-term plan and where that sets us. We’ll keep having those conversations. He’s very important to us. Kind of get a sense of what’s important to Juan and then make decisions accordingly as we get through the offseason.”
A team that trades for Soto would almost certainly run the risk of having given up significant player capital while getting Soto for one season — as signing him to a deal simultaneous with a trade has challenges.
Soto turned down a record 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals in 2022 with an eye on getting far more than that when he reaches free agency after the ’24 season. And for Soto, comfort in his surroundings and the people around him seems paramount. He and others credited his strong second half (.966 OPS after the All-Star break) to his having attained a higher comfort level with the Padres.
“I don’t think any player wants to play in an organization that he does not know,” Boras said. “He would have to know.”
Said Preller: “There’s always an adjustment period. And the good part for us is he’s adjusted well to the West Coast, San Diego, our team, our situation, and I think he’s indicated the openness to want to be in San Diego. But there’s a financial component to that, too. So obviously that’ll be part of this offseason and some of the conversation over the course of the next few weeks with Scott.”
