The San Diego County Board of Supervisors, once again tasked with deciding how to fill a vacant seat after a second unexpected departure in less than two years, will be considering whether a quick appointment outweighs the public engagement afforded by a special election.
The decision comes on the heels of Chair Nora Vargas’ surprise announcement Friday that she would conclude her tenure as the representative of District 1 at the end of her current term, on Jan. 6, “due to personal safety and security reasons.” She and her office have declined to comment further.
If supervisors opt for a special election, the more than 630,000 residents in the South County district will be left without a representative for months. But if they choose to appoint someone, they will be bypassing much of the community input.
The county’s remaining four supervisors now must decide how to fill the seat for the four-year term — Vargas had just won re-election last month — that begins next month and extends through January 2029.
Under the county charter, supervisors can appoint a successor, hold a special election or appoint an interim supervisor until an election is completed.
The process is familiar to nearly all of the seated supervisors, as Nathan Fletcher resigned from the board in May of last year following sexual misconduct allegations.
The board has not yet indicated how it intends to fill the upcoming vacancy. However, its next meeting is scheduled for Jan. 7, where its remaining four members are likely to discuss next steps.
Although the cost and timeline for a special election varies depending on factors like the jurisdiction, the number of registered voters and whether it is an all-mail election or would involve in-person voting, the recent District 4 special election gives a better glimpse into what the process could look like.
If the board decides to fill the vacancy by appointment, board policy dictates that it hold two public hearings after a short application filing period and likely seat a new supervisor in January or February.
A special election would take place as early as April, with a possible runoff in July if no candidate earns a majority of votes. The nomination process would begin almost immediately and candidates would be selected by February.
The District 4 special election last year cost the county an estimated $4.8 million, according to county staff.
In that election, the county had to hold its own special primary election in August — which accounted for more than half ($2.9 million) the total costs — but was able to consolidate the special general election with the statewide election in November.
At the time of that election, District 4 had 394,373 registered voters, whereas District 1 currently has 372,036 registered voters, county staff said.
However, there are no other local or statewide elections planned this year. The board could authorize either the primary or general elections, or both, be conducted by mail, which could reduce costs.
Although it would take longer for a representative to be seated, a majority of residents urged the board to hold a special election, warning that appointing a replacement could compromise public representation and undermine credibility of the new supervisor, whereas a handful of others advocated for an appointment so that representation could be restored sooner.
Special elections typically yield lower voter turnout as they take place outside the general election schedule and often decide only one race.
This was the case in District 4, where only 24.5% of registered voters cast ballots in the special primary election. The November special general election brought in even fewer voters, with a 22.75% turnout.
Supervisors will likely consider whether additional voter outreach is needed to educate District 1 voters, in hopes of averting the low turnout.
The predominantly Democratic and ethnically diverse district spans most of South County to include the cities of Chula Vista, Imperial Beach and National City, as well as some city of San Diego neighborhoods.
Potential candidates are already expressing interest in filling Vargas’ seat.
Chula Vista Mayor John McCann told The San Diego Union-Tribune Friday he is “definitely considering running” if supervisors choose to hold a special election. On Monday, San Diego City Councilmember Vivian Moreno announced on social media she’d also be throwing her name in the hat.
Meanwhile, until a new supervisor is chosen, the board will once again be divided between two Democrats and two Republicans. Whoever wins the seat will play a key role in deciding measures with partisan splits.
Under the board’s rules and procedures, supervisors have 30 days from the first meeting of the year to elect officers, including a chair, vice-chair and chair pro tem.
With the board’s Democratic majority, Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer, the current vice chair, would likely have been chosen to succeed Vargas, who has served as chair for the past two years.
However, the 2-2 partisan split could pose a challenge.
It is unclear what will happen if the board cannot come to an agreement.
