Shannon Gugins, a Santee mother of three, has been every kind of Black Friday shopper. She used to head to the mall at midnight. What’s a few hours of lost sleep for mega savings? But that was too much, so she opted out entirely. “I used to not do Black Friday, because of the crazy rush of people,” she said.
This Friday, she got to Target on Balboa Avenue in Clairemont around 8 a.m.
Save on Christmas presents and get a full night of sleep?
That’s the new Black Friday.
“I feel like Black Friday has changed a lot over the years, where it’s a lot calmer,” Gugins said as she pushed her cart through a toy aisle. “The deals start way earlier and you can do it online and it’s not a rush to get in here.”
“Now that it’s calmer,” she added, “I feel like I can come out again. After the pandemic, I feel like they really changed things to make it not so crazy.” She was heading to The Home Depot next and plans to finish up her shopping on Cyber Monday.
If 2020 Black Friday was the year of pandemic shutdowns, 2021 was the supply chain crisis, and 2022 was about inflation, what is the theme of Black Friday 2023?
Jerika Gutierrez, who manages that Target, said this year it’s about a season of value. The store opened at 6 a.m. Friday, but it started rolling out Black Friday discounts in October. What customers want: “Not necessarily trying to find the cheapest thing, but trying to find affordable value, especially because inflation is still present,” Gutierrez said. And they’re shopping for weeks, not one day or a weekend.
Shannon Gugins from Santee shopped for Christmas gifts for her three boys during Black Friday. Gugins says that she shops at the local big box stores as well as online.
(Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Retail analyst Burt Flickinger III, the managing director of Strategic Resource Group, an advisory firm, said this year’s Black Friday is about two connected trends.
“Retail revenge” is one. By that, he means “revenge” of shoppers — on stores. After prices rose and rose due to inflation (and, for customers using credit cards, due also to record high interest rates) now consumers are focused on saving money and will hunt for discounts across stores.
“Shoppers will outsmart the stores (through) record use of coupons, buying items on sale (and) comparison shopping,” he said.
While consumers are looking to stretch their dollars — and desperate to do so after getting stung at checkout stands and in credit card statements for more than a year — this Black Friday is also especially important for retailers who have been buffeted by theft, excess inventory, lingering high ground and air transportation costs, and tightening budgets from those same wary and worn-out shoppers.
“It is the most important year, because it’s make or break for the stores and the chain retailers to really survive,” Flickinger said.
And that’s the second theme of this year’s Black Friday, Flickinger said. He pointed to the recent bankruptcy of RiteAid. Had RiteAid been able to get to Black Friday and the rest of the holiday shopping season, he said, “it would have had a chance of surviving.”
“Hopefully,” he added, “this will be the holiday season that saves retail this year, and saves retail for the rest of this decade.”
Stores have reasons to be hopeful: The National Retail Federation is projecting that 16 million more people will shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year over last — reaching an estimated 182 million. That’s the highest estimate since the trade group started tracking such data, in 2017, it wrote.
More shoppers means more purchases . The trade group also said merchants should expect around 3 to 4 percent more holiday spending over last year — between around $957 billion and $967 billion.
That’s less year-over-year growth than in the last few years, when shoppers had stimulus payments and pandemic-era savings to fuel their buying.
“This year’s holiday spending is consistent with the average annual holiday increase of 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2019,” the group wrote.
Here’s a simple rule of thumb to help you get the best deal, according to WalletHub, a personal finance website. “The overall average discount for Black Friday is 35 percent. Consumers should aim for this discount amount or higher to avoid Black Friday traps.”
That’s an average, so some discounts go deeper: “The best Black Friday deals can save you up to 85 percent, which could translate into hundreds or even thousands of dollars in savings, depending on the extent of your shopping spree,” Cassandra Happe, a WalletHub analyst, was quoted in a press release.
Flickinger had this key tip for shoppers who want deals: wait.
“The longer the shopper waits, the more she or he will benefit in terms of bigger bargains and record-breaking savings,” he said.
Where to find the best discounts
According to WalletHub, these San Diego County stores will have the biggest sales: JCPenney has the highest average discount among large retailers, at 59 percent. Macy’s is a close second, with an average discount of 58 percent. Kohl’s is third, with an average discount of around 49 percent, and Target comes in fourth, with the average discount of around 33 percent. Best Buy is fifth, with about 30 percent off.
At JCPenney, “you’ll save the most money when shopping for jewelry, apparel, accessories, and appliances,” according to Happe.
Stores with smaller discounts: Costco, with an average of 17 percent off, and The Home Depot, with around 21 percent off on average, WalletHub said.
Flickinger pointed to a few categories where you can expect to see good deals.
“For furniture and home, there should be the best bargains in well over a decade,” he said. That’s because, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, sales volumes for the last 12 months have been trending down almost 6 percent. “That’s not even adjusted for inflation.”
Another heavily discounted category: electronics.
“With the overproduction of consumer electronics in Korea and North Asia, Japan, Mainland China and other parts of Asia, there’s going to be no shortage of sale items,” he said.
Jeff Hernandez and Sage Friel added to their list a new 60-inch flat-screen television to go with their new PS5 that they were purchasing during Black Friday deals at Best Buy in Mission Valley.
(Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Gutierrez, the Target store director, offered this Black Friday advice: shop online. The discounts are the same, and the company has invested in pickup and delivery, with a big push about four years ago. People who come in person on Black Friday are typically checking out fabric and fit.
“That’s where I’ve seen our guest traffic kind of change,” she said. “Before used to be the blockbuster TVs, or Xboxes, PS5s, whatever those things are? Easier to get those things online.”
Mixed shopper reviews
Mylene Ferrer and Hunter Prementine, also at Target, had picked up household essentials — toilet paper and deodorant — but had no gifts or splurges in hand when they stopped to chat near some holiday decorations.
“We were trying to look for some deals, but…” Prementine started.
“Not too impressed, to be honest,” Ferrer continued.
They were hoping for massive deals on tech. Instead, Prementine said, “it just looks like any other deal: Memorial Day, Valentines Day.”
Vanessa Hernandez from Chula Vista made a quick stop to pickup Christmas holiday pajamas during the Black Friday sales at Target in Clairemont.
(Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
On the opposite end of the store, Vanessa Hernandez, 25, of Chula Vista, said she popped in on her way to work at HoneyBaked Ham, a few blocks away. She was pleased with the prices.
“There’s a lot of clearance, and for Black Friday they have a lot of deals right now,” she said. She also shopped online and picked up an order on Wednesday.
At Best Buy in Mission Valley, TVs were in high demand. Sisters Mallory Boyd, 30, and Tiffaney Boyd, 35, who live in North Park, headed out of the store with a 55-inch LG ultra high definition TV priced at $299. A Christmas gift from Mallory to her sister. She felt she got a good deal, after comparing prices and options online. The TV budget was $300.
Mallory’s approach to Black Friday this year: “Comparing everything.”
Tiffaney added, “I’m definitely budget friendly this year. … I want to feel comfortable going into the new year, and I don’t want to overly spend, like I’m used to doing.”
Both sisters said they are working harder, as consumers, to invest both research and time so they can spend less while shopping.
Roberto Hernandez carries out his new 50-inch flat-screen TV from Best Buy.
(Nelvin C. Cepeda/The San Diego Union-Tribune)
“I need to make a list, I need to check and see where the deals are,” Tiffaney said. “My work is going through layoffs and cutting back. Groceries are insane, and I need to put food on the table.”
Mallory said that was their first stop of the day. They did the midnight lineup other years, but “figured the same deals are available later in the day.” From Best Buy, they were heading to Fashion Valley to hit up the sales at Vuori, Nordstrom and Macy’s, where Mallory is looking for clothes.
“Wish us luck,” Tiffaney said.
