Rep. Mike Levin didn’t make the cut.
That’s a good thing for him, though not so much for his potential opponent next year, county Supervisor Jim Desmond.
On Monday, the National Republican Congressional Committee released its first round of targeted Democratic members of Congress, 26 in all. Levin isn’t on it but five other California incumbents are.
That’s not entirely a surprise. Levin was first elected in 2018 and has proved resilient in the face of serious challenges ever since in the 49th District, which straddles the San Diego-Orange county line.
The GOP list will be updated throughout the election cycle, as will an eventual parallel one from Democrats, and the Republicans could change their thinking about how much to challenge Levin.
Still, Levin’s absence is noteworthy because the district, once solidly Republican, has turned purple over the years and is considered the only potential battleground among San Diego County’s five congressional seats.
It’s also interesting because of the talk coming out of the California Republican Party’s state convention in Sacramento last Sunday.
Corrin Rankin, who had just been elected the new California GOP chair, promised bold action from the party that for decades has struggled to remain relevant in the Golden State. She promised to challenge in Democratic bastions, according to Politico.
“Expect to see us in San Francisco, on the Peninsula, in Los Angeles,” Rankin told reporters after her victory over former state Sen. Mike Morrell. “We’re going to make investments, and we’re going to start targeting those areas.”
Rankin said she’s “not concerned about backsliding” in California during next year’s midterm elections — which, in 2018, were a devastating loss for Republicans after Trump’s first two years in office. The GOP clawed back some ground over the next couple of cycles, but Democrats flipped three California House seats last year.
Still, there’s nothing unusual about big confidence at political conventions, which tend to fire up rank-and-file activists and party leaders alike.
After all, Democrats came roaring out of their national convention in Chicago last year after swapping out beleaguered President Joe Biden for Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s nominee. That serves as a cautionary tale about projecting post-convention enthusiasm too far into the future.
The GOP may well start eyeing opportunities in the Bay Area and L.A., or at least plant the seeds for the long run. But more than likely, Republicans will focus on protecting their modest legislative gains in the Legislature, and who they view as vulnerable Democrats.
Beyond that, the GOP will likely look at more competitive districts, like the 49th and the state Senate 40th District, than deep blue enclaves.
The Senate district sweeps from north San Diego County – from San Marcos, Escondido and Valley Center – down into a segment of the city of San Diego and over to East County rural communities, including Ramona, Alpine and Descanso. The incumbent is termed-out Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones of Santee.
Like the 49th, the Senate district had been Republican but became less so because of demographic trends and reapportionment. Democrats now hold a minuscule advantage in voter registration over Republicans.
That seat could be ripe for flipping if the GOP doesn’t make it a priority. Symbolism only means so much, but losing the seat now held by the top Senate Republican would be a bad look.
San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert entered the race early and has lined up many establishment Democrats behind her. Two Republicans are in the hunt so far: San Marcos Councilmember Ed Musgrove, a former sheriff’s captain, and Kristie Bruce-Lane, a former Olivenhain water board member who twice ran for Assembly.
Shifting back to the Levin race, something to watch is whether Desmond will clear the Republican field, at least of any other major GOP candidate. On Wednesday, Levin’s 2024 opponent, businessman Matt Gunderson, announced he will not be running again and instead will focus on getting a voter ID law passed in California.
Among other things Desmond may have going for him is that he’s from the San Diego County portion of the district and is well-known, having served as mayor of San Marcos before being elected twice to the Board of Supervisors. Levin’s GOP opponents have all lived in Orange County, where the portion of the 49th District is significantly smaller than the San Diego territory.
But Desmond’s also a well-identified conservative and the race in the moderate 49th will be more partisan than his other elections. The San Diego part of the district is more Democratic than north of the county line. He also doesn’t appear to have the kind of deep pockets of Gunderson, who spent significant personal funds in losing to Levin by 4.4 percentage points.
Desmond has so far raised the issues of immigration, the cost of living and concerns about overall quality of life, similar to his GOP predecessors. Still, Republicans believe they have made headway with those issues along with public safety, including homelessness, and the general public discontent reflected in polls with how the state is being run under Democratic leadership.
Meanwhile, the California GOP under recent past chair Jessica Millan Patterson registered nearly 1 million new Republican voters, boosting the party back into second place behind Democrats after it fell below the number of voters who list no party preference.
Patterson has noted Republicans have been more successful in winning inland districts than Democratic strongholds along the coast.
There was considerable analysis about California shifting to the right last year. Trump lost big to Harris in the state, but did notably better than against Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Maybe Republicans can keep it going in 2026. However, it’s sometimes easy to mistake the typical ebb and flow of politics for long-lasting realignment. Some Trump voters may stay home when he’s not on the ballot next year.
And it’s hardly ancient history that the anticipated red wave in the 2022 congressional elections when Biden was in office turned into a Republican ripple.
Midterm elections, which usually aren’t kind to the party holding the White House, often serve as a reality check.
What they said
Semisonic (@SemisonicBand), regarding the Trump administration using their hit song on an ad about deporting people.
“We did not authorize or condone the White House’s use of our song ‘Closing Time’ in any way. And no, they didn’t ask. The song is about joy and possibilities and hope, and they have missed the point entirely.”
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